With Wisconsin’s status as a swing state, the role of Dane County in determining a statewide election outcome is important. The county’s rapidly growing population and status as a Democratic stronghold has made it a regular stop for the Democrats, but the GOP made a recent stop in the county.
According to UW Political Science professor and Director of the Election Research Center Barry Burden, Dane County has been a major engine for the Democratic Party in recent years. The county’s population has been steadily increasing over the past 10 years, according to data from the World Population Review.
Burden said the county’s population surge is driven by the University of Wisconsin’s expansion, the rise of Madison’s technology sector and an influx of young professionals and government workers, many of whom are drawn to the region’s biotech industry.
“The turnout rates in the state have been going up and are some of highest statewide, and Democrats continue to win larger percentages of the vote,” Burden said. “It’s really become kind of the headquarters of the Democratic party’s efforts to win statewide.”
This dynamic has not gone unnoticed by the campaigns. Democratic presidential candidates have made Dane County a regular stop on the campaign trail, according to Burden. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris both held rallys in Madison in 2024.
In contrast, Republican candidates have been more hesitant to engage with Dane County’s predominantly Democratic electorate. Burden said that GOP candidates are apprehensive about setting foot in the county, fearing their presence could inflame Democrats and harm their chances. Trump’s late September bus tour took him across Wisconsin, from Hudson to Green Bay. But, Trump himself hasn’t given up on winning Wisconsin.
“They say that Wisconsin is probably the toughest of the swing states to win,” Trump said in his opening remarks during his Juneau rally held Oct. 6. “I don’t think so.”
Despite Wisconsin always being a tight race, the only time in the last 40 years that the state went red was for Trump in 2016. He won the state by just under 30,000 votes, according to Politico.
The recent visits by Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump to Dane County underscore the differing approaches. While Harris made a stop in Madison, Trump’s visit was on the outskirts of Dane County in Waunakee, a smaller, more controlled event. Burden called it a “quick incursion into Dane County.”
But, the county’s Democratic leanings do not mean it is a lost cause for Republicans. UW Journalism professor Mike Wagner said that even though Dane County is highly unlikely to be won by GOP candidates, there are still thousands of votes to be had. Wagner thinks Republicans and Democrats both need to maximize their turnout in places with higher populations, such as Dane County.
“Even though Republicans are likely to lose by a lot in Dane County, if they can lose by a little bit less that might be enough to push them over the top in an election,” Wagner said.
To appeal to Dane County, candidates must carefully tailor their messaging. Wagner noted that for Democrats, reproductive rights are a crucial issue, while Republicans focus on topics like immigration and inflation. Nonpartisan concerns around infrastructure like road quality and high-speed internet access also resonate across the political spectrum.
“We know from surveys that the public is very concerned about the cost of housing, the cost of groceries, the cost of gasoline, healthcare, other essentials, and they feel as though their wages have just not kept up,” Burden said. “So there is an opportunity for Republicans to go after Biden and Harris for contributing to the problem of inflation and not making the economy more navigable for people, especially young people.”
Wagner also touched on the importance of local news in politics. He called local news the most trusted and used source for information among voters, especially those who are just starting to pay attention. High-quality local news coverage can lead to more informed voters and improve voter turnout, Wagner said.
As the 2024 election cycle heats up, the battle for Wisconsin and other swing states is the key to success for both candidates.
With Election Day approaching in the next few weeks notable democrats such as Jill Biden, former president Barack Obama and vice presidential candidate Tim Walz have planned or plan to visit Dane County.
