Thanksgiving is quickly approaching and this year, Americans can expect lower turkey prices compared to last year, but a more expensive plate overall, according to University of Wisconsin assistant professor of agricultural and applied economics Andrew Stevens.

Lower prices for turkey, a Thanksgiving staple, are largely due to the decline of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, more commonly known as bird flu, according to Stevens. While there are still some parts of the country where bird flu outbreaks are occurring, fewer birds are infected this year than last year, Stevens said.

As a result, there are more turkeys available for purchase, lowering prices, according to Stevens.

“Turkey prices in 2023 should be lower than they were in 2022,” Stevens said. “Wholesale prices for frozen whole turkeys are about 25% lower now than they were this time last year.”

According to CNN and the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, in July, the supply of turkeys increased by 2-3%, as the turkey industry increased the amount of birds in circulation. A heftier supply with similar demand directly leads to lower costs, according to Stevens.

Further, input costs, such as the cost of transporting turkeys across the country in refrigerated trucks, have gone down as well, further contributing to the decrease in turkey-related expenses this year, Stevens said.

While consumer turkey prices may be lower, overall, food at the grocery store is more expensive this year than it was last year, Stevens said.

In 2022, the price of food at the grocery store rose by 11.4% compared to the overall inflation rate of 6.5%, according to Stevens. In 2023, groceries are predicted to rise an additional 5.1%. Historically, food at the grocery store increases by an average of 2.5% each year, Stevens said.

In terms of specific food items, egg prices are back to normal after last year’s price spike, Stevens said. The foods with the most rapidly increasing prices are fats and oils, sugar and sweets, processed fruits and vegetables, cereals, bakery products and beverages.

Canned food items are an integral part of most Thanksgiving meals, but many Americans may want to swap canned goods out for their fresh counterparts, Stevens said. Fresh cranberries, Wisconsin’s state fruit, will cost around 20% less compared to last year, while canned cranberries will cost almost 60% more. This is due to a combination of rising packaging and labor costs, which are elevating prices for canned produce overall, Stevens said.

This may make pumpkin pie more expensive as well, if canned pumpkin puree is included in your beloved, tried and true recipe. Production costs for canned pumpkins are currently 30% higher this year than they were last year, Stevens said.

At UW, students are feeling the strain of high grocery costs. UW senior Nina Petrosino shops for groceries biweekly and is fed up with how expensive groceries have become.

“I’m very disappointed that grocery prices have gone up over the years,” Petrosino said. “It’s not affordable for students and my monthly grocery budget is constantly increasing.”

Petrosino shops for groceries primarily at Fresh Madison Market, Trader Joe’s and Target. She has seen an increase in the grocery prices of Fresh Market and Target, but noted that they have always been expensive. Petrosino said she is feeling this strain more around the holiday season.