As the possible resolution of the political turmoil in Egypt remains uncertain, students and two University of Wisconsin professors gathered Tuesday to weigh possible options for resolutions for the country and the future of American foreign policymaking.
UW professor Howard Schweber and professor Jeremy Menchik presented historical background to suggest the demonstrations were not spontaneous and offered their opinions as to possible next steps for the protesters.
Schweber said around six groups had begun to mobilize and organize members using social networking tools such as Facebook as early as 2004, and the outbreak of the protests was timed to coincide with the Police Day holiday.
He also said the controversial Muslim Brotherhood group – banned by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak – insists they have no interest in taking political control but rather are only seeking formal recognition.
Schweber also said the current demonstrations are by no means an Islamic revolution.
Menchik said the assumption that ideology drives all movements is misguided, particularly for Egyptian Muslims in the protests and the “fear mongering” Mubarak has implemented surrounding the Muslim Brotherhood.
He also said following Mubarak’s announcement he would not run for re-election but would not leave office early, he is concerned the ideal moment for a possible transition is political leadership has passed.
“Mubarak saw people would continue to support him within his close circle and also feels he has found support abroad,” Menchik said.
He said a decision from President Barack Obama to lend support for a leader who is increasingly unpopular with the people would undoubtedly breed anti-Americanism among Egyptians.
Menchik added while many assume Mubarak’s autocratic rule provides stability to the country, “off-scene” violence has contributed to continuing instability.
He added the shift in political leadership in Indonesia provided an apt comparison for the ideal in Egypt because the regime was pushed out by decentralized groups and the incoming leader had cross-religion support.
In regard to potential courses of resolution for the situation, Schweber said the most important point would be considering what political figure would succeed Mubarek in office.
Schweber also said although the military remains a key player in the dispute and is no longer associated with Mubarak, an acceptable leader must emerge as a likely replacement for the president.
“The army has been allowing a certain level of unrest, hoping control will turn to them,” he said. “But eventually they will need someone to take over.”
After Mubarak is no longer in office, both Schweber and Menchik said the incoming regime should not attempt to exact transitioning justice on Mubarak’s regime, members of the police or the military.
UW senior Cody Olson said Mubarak’s announcement piqued his interest as to whether parties involved in the protests would be criminally charged after a new government came to power.
He said he believes the president will remain in power in the foreseeable future and will watch events unfold instead of taking an active role in policing the demonstrations.
“The announcement was huge; it opened up a lot of doors,” Olson said. “These people want some kind of justice, and whoever comes up next will decide whether the doors remain open.”
