With the presidential election less than a month away, a new Marquette University Law School poll shows a four-point gain in Wisconsin registered voter support for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
The latest poll, conducted from Oct. 6 to 9, found 44 percent of likely Wisconsin voters support Clinton, compared to 41 percent in the September poll. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s Wisconsin support fell 1 percentage point to 37 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson holds 9 percent of support and Green Party candidate Jill Stein holds 3 percent.
In Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic candidate Russ Feingold narrowly leads Republican Ron Johnson 46 to 44 percent among likely voters, while Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson holds 4 percent support.
This is a narrower race than in September, when 44 percent of likely voters supported Feingold, 39 percent favored Johnson and 3 percent expressed support for Anderson.
The poll came during one of the most volatile periods of the presidential election, when a tape of Donald Trump making lewd comments about women surfaced Oct. 7. The poll was completed before the second presidential debate Sunday.
Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said in the poll summary that the video had a profound effect on Wisconsin voters.
“The publication appears to have caused a significant shift in Wisconsin voters’ attitudes across several different demographics,” Franklin said.
Back in September, it was:
Clinton 41%
Trump 38%
Johnson 11%
Stein 2%
Among likely voters in WI. #MULawPoll— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 12, 2016
While 6 percent of voters did not express a preference, the 7 percent difference between Clinton and Trump put Clinton outside the 3.9 margin of error for likely voters, doubling since the September poll.
In an examination of votes in the days before, during and after the tape was released, the poll found that Trump’s numbers fell and Clinton’s numbers rose each day.
Among likely voters in WI:
Thursday: Trump 41%, Clinton 40%
Friday: Clinton 44%, Trump 38%
Saturday and Sunday: Clinton 49%, Trump 30%— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 12, 2016
Clinton gained a greater advantage among women and a new advantage among men from Thursday to Sunday. Trump went from a 12-point lead among men to a one-point loss. Among women, Clinton’s lead over Trump rose from nine to 33 points between Thursday and Sunday.
Among female likely voters in WI:
Thursday: Clinton 45%, Trump 36%
Friday: Clinton 60%, Trump 33%
Saturday+Sunday: Clinton 56%, Trump 23%— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 12, 2016
Even some of Trump’s most strongly supportive demographics shrunk between Thursday and Sunday. He saw a net loss of 24 points among Protestant Evangelical voters, dropping from 64 to 47 percent support among likely voters in that group. Trump lost his advantage among non-Hispanic white voters to Clinton, dropping from 48 to 35 percent support over the four-day period.
Among evangelical likely voters in WI:
Thursday: Trump 64%, Clinton 24%
Friday: Trump 55%, Clinton 32%
Sat+Sun: Trump 47%, Clinton 31%— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 12, 2016
Despite the increase in support for Clinton, 53 percent of likely voters said they were very or somewhat uncomfortable with Clinton as president. Sixty-three percent said they were very or somewhat uncomfortable with Trump. More than 60 percent of voters would describe neither Trump nor Clinton as “honest.”
Of the 1,000 registered voters surveyed, 878 were considered likely voters. The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history.
