Heading into election day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have focused a major part of their final campaigning days on seven key battleground states — Pa., Mich., Wis., Ariz., Nev., Ga. and N.C.
Five states, including Wisconsin, flipped blue in 2020 after Trump took them during the 2016 election.
In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden won Wisconsin’s electoral votes by only 20,000 votes, leading Trump to declare a recount. The results were declared early Wednesday afternoon following election day in 2020, with Biden winning about 49.6% of Wisconsin’s votes, according to previous reports by The Badger Herald.
For Wisconsin, Trump is leading Harris by a very slight 0.3% margin. Dane, Ozauakee and Washington County are especially pivotal for which way the state will lean in the 2024 election.
Arizona consistently voted red in five presidential elections from 2000 to 2016, but Biden narrowly won the state during the 2020 election, according to CBS News. In 2020, the vote was narrowly decided, launching Arizona’s role as a key battleground state to watch in the 2024 election.
The Hill and DDHQ poll currently shows Trump leading Harris 49.8% to 47.3% in Arizona.
Georgia followed a similar trend as Arizona, with Biden winning the state’s electorate in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes after being red every election since 1992 Clinton. Polls report Trump with a slight lead over Harris at 49.6% compared to 47.9%.
Currently, Georgia is at the center of an election interference case. Two out of the 13 counts Trump faced in the indictment were dropped earlier this fall, with the judge stating they fall under federal jurisdiction. Three counts were dropped earlier this year, leaving eight of the original 13 counts remaining in the case.
While Democratic candidates took Michigan in every election — barring Trump’s win in 2016 — since 1992, the state remains a key battleground in this election. In 2016, Trump won Michigan by a very close margin, less than 11,000 votes. Polling from The Hill and DDHQ shows a very tight race for the 2024 election, with Harris only leading by 0.4%.
In 2020, Kent County, a historically red county, was one of three Michigan counties to flip blue. Now, it remains an important battleground county for people to watch on election day.
Nevada has remained democratic for the last four presidential elections. Despite leaning blue in the past, polling currently shows Trump leading by 1.7%.
Democrats have only won North Carolina twice since 1968 and current polls have Trump leading by a 1.5% margin.
Arguably the most important state in this presidential election is Pennsylvania, according to Brookings. Of the swing states, Pennsylvania is the largest with 19 electoral votes. In 2016, Trump won the state by a very small margin of less than 0.73%, compared to Biden’s victory by 1.17% in 2020.
Recent polling in Pennsylvania shows the candidates are neck-to-neck, with women leaning toward Harris and men leaning toward Trump. Currently, Trump has a 0.8% lead over Harris.
One state that was an unlikely battleground to watch in the 2024 election is Iowa.
A recent poll by the Des Moines Register and Mediacom shows Harris leading Trump 47% to 44%, a statistic that has changed since Iowa polls in September showed Trump leading by about 4 points. Before that, a poll in June showed Trump leading incumbent President Biden by 18 points.
If elected, Harris would become the first female president in American history. One issue at the forefront for female voters, abortion, has remained central to Harris’s campaign.
In general, women are more likely to lean Democratic compared to men, who are more likely to lean Republican, according to Pew Research Center. Brookings argues this gender gap could sway the election based on reports on electorate demographics from the 2020 elections.
During the 2020 election, women accounted for 54.7% of the electorate, while men accounted for 44%. Additionally, there were more female voters counted in the electorate for six out of seven swing states.
Wisconsin was the only swing state where 50% of voters were female and 50% were men, according to CNN exit polls.
Harris and Trump are currently tied at 48.4% based on 349 national polls, making this an extremely close presidential race. In past races, some states — such as Kentucky and Vermont — have been called minutes after polling places close. Therefore, we could see states being called starting soon after 8 p.m. CT.
