Coming into this season, this matchup was circled, highlighted and starred on each team’s schedule. With both teams ranked in the top 20 in the preseason rankings, the battle between Wisconsin and Michigan State would hold significant value in the Big Ten standings and the hearts of the respective fanbases.
But Saturday’s matchup between the Badgers and the Spartans was significantly more appetizing in the preseason than what is currently on the table. Both Wisconsin and Michigan State are respectable, competitive Big Ten programs. In the past ten seasons, they have combined for nine appearances and two victories in the Big Ten Championship. Across the college football landscape, both the Badgers and Spartans are revered for their consistent standard of excellence year-in and year-out.
But this year is an anomaly. Both teams have struggled with extremely sluggish and disappointing starts. With the firing of head coach Paul Chryst, Wisconsin’s program has received more media attention for its lackluster first half, but the Spartans have been equally, if not more underwhelming. With a record of 2-4, Michigan State has lost their last four games to Washington, Minnesota, Maryland and Ohio State. The fierce competition may be an excuse for the Spartans’ disarray, but in their four defeats, they have lost by an average of 20.25 points.
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Uncompetitive and lopsided are the main descriptors for the Spartan losses. The main culprit for their deficiency is their defense. In last week’s loss against Ohio State, the Spartans were already missing five defensive starters when freshman safety Jaden Mangham was carted off the field with an apparent neck injury. The Buckeyes scored a touchdown in five of the first six drives, pulling the starters after the first half.
In their opening victory against Western Michigan, star linebacker Darius Snow suffered a right leg injury that put him out for the season. The Spartans have failed to find a valiant replacement for him, and his absence leads to a lot more open space on the field. Subsequently, their top three defensive lineman have also missed multiple games. Operating with mostly backups, the Spartans have only tallied two sacks in their four-game losing streak. In Big Ten play, Michigan State has the worst statistical defense in the country.
With that said, Graham Mertz has another opportunity to put up massive numbers on Saturday. Coming off a career-high of five touchdowns and 299 passing yards, the junior quarterback will have his opportunities. With an inexperienced and injured Spartan front, Mertz will have time to spread the ball around to his favorite target, Chimere Dike, and the other Badger receivers. One major difference between the Jim Leonhard and Chryst regime remains the aggression of the Badger offense.
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This new-look, dynamic offense was on full display against Northwestern, particularly on the Badgers’ first drive. Mertz completed all four passes, with all plays designed for a run-pass-option (RPO) or play-actions. With only one week of film, the Badgers’ new look remains a strategic advantage that cannot be overlooked. For that reason, expect the Badgers to put up some impressive numbers on Saturday. While the meat and potatoes of the offense will always be the run game, Leonhard certainly prefers to spice up his offensive looks.
Beyond the on-field play, the Badgers have more to play for than a “W” in the record books. Multiple players, including Nick Herbig and Graham Mertz, have noted that they are playing for the coaching staff as well. If the Badgers fail to improve from their troubled start, the coaching staff, including Leonhard, will be tossed. The testimony of the captains of the team signifies the close relationship between the players and coaches.
On the field, Michigan State has a plethora of offensive weapons that will match up well against Wisconsin. Jayden Reed, Michigan State’s premier offensive player, was a first-team All-American last season. Cornerback Jay Shaw will most likely cover Reed and that matchup will be a major factor in the final score. Expect Jay Shaw to have a rough day based on Reed’s talent and production.
The Badgers will face a familiar face in running back Jalen Berger, the former Badger running back who transferred last season. With 308 rushing yards and 4.8 yards per carry on the season, Berger has been a dim light in a darkened tunnel of a season. No doubt, Berger will carry a chip on his shoulder for this game against his former team. The key for the Badgers is to knock that chip off through relentless tackling and packing the box.
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Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne has been inconsistent this season. With nine touchdowns and seven interceptions, his numbers are significantly down from last season. It’s likely Leonhard will prioritize stopping the run and give Thorne the freedom to make plays. If Michigan State has any chance, Thorne will have to have the best game of his season. Albeit, he has not had much success thus far.
In the end, the key differentiator between the two teams is their mindset. The Badgers are hungry, ferocious and ready to kill. From the outside look of things, the Spartan fanbase appears more dispirited and dejected at a 2-4 start and an increasing chance of missing a bowl game. The Badgers should dominate offensively and put up an impressive showing for the next iteration of newly promoted head coach Leonhard’s dress rehearsal.
Final Prediction: Badgers 34, Michigan State 24
