University of Wisconsin alumnus Stephen J. Morrison returned to campus to address the ongoing Ebola crisis in West Africa, emphasizing the urgency of the present situation.
Morrison, a distinguished figure in both African studies and foreign affairs, earned an honorary degree from Yale University and a Ph.D. in political science from UW. He currently serves as senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and directs the CSIS Center for Global Health Policy.
The event was co-sponsored by the Division of International Studies, the African Studies Program and the Global Health Institute, where Morrison discussed the exponentially increasing epidemic hitting few African countries.
The primary focus of the discussion was on the newly confirmed U.S. intervention, and the steps President Barack Obama is taking in order to fulfill a “moral obligation.” The growing concern over the magnitude of this outbreak is well validated, Morrison said.
“Ebola is complex. It’s cruel. It’s transformative. It’s very fast moving,” he said. “We’ve never seen this phenomenon that’s now upon us.”
Referring to the current Ebola crisis as West Africa’s “darkest moment,” Morrison said the efforts the U.S. is putting forward to intervene will bring hope to the most heavily-infected areas of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
The current West African outbreak, as of Sept. 14, has confirmed 5,335 cases with 2,622 deaths, the largest Ebola crisis ever recorded, Morrison said. When compared to the 2000 outbreak affecting Uganda, with 224 deaths in 425 cases, he said these statistics have created an urgent need to intervene.
“The outbreak is now exponential. That means that every person infected is infecting one to two people and those one to two people become symptomatic within 21 days, and they infect one to two people,” Morrison said.
Morrison said a lack of surveillance, acutely weak health systems and massive distrust of authorities are all factors that led to the unremitting spread of the fatal disease.
Thus, Morrison said the early-mid cases of Ebola were driven “underground,” unseen and unheard of by authorities worldwide that were unaware of the significance of the epidemic.
Though the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization and Doctors Without Borders have all joined the fight against the disease, the ferocity of the spread and lack of adequate resources has led to direct U.S. intervention, he said.
“How do we explain what the turn around was? First, the ferocious trajectory of the outbreak itself, the exponential growth,” Morrison said.
Through internal modeling, it has been estimated that the Ebola cases could reach half a million by Christmas if unstopped due to urban invasion, an incident that had never occurred before for this disease.
What Morrison refers to as an “abyss,” the end of this summer showed no alternative choice than to turn to the military for its vast numbers, knowledge of bio warfare training and expertise and logistics in air-bridge lifts.
Morrison said with economic aid, the U.S. military hopes to establish a joint military command center in Liberia by deploying 3,000 troops. The plan is to create an air-bridge from Senegal and build additional treatment and isolation centers. Training indigenous health care workers has become essential in eradicating the infection while also delivering home kits in order to prevent further spread.
Morrison said he questions if this is enough, and is uncertain if U.S. involvement will bring a decline in this fatal epidemic.
“We don’t know. The critical question is whether or not you can break transmission; whether you can isolate those that are infected and sick and you can break the chain of transmission,” Morrison said. “There’s no data or experiential base for doing this and that is going to be the critical challenge.”
