The state unemployment rate rose to 7 percent from 6.7 percent in January despite adding 1,800 jobs, according to a Department of Workforce Development report.
The monthly data showed a gain of 12,400 private-sector jobs from December 2012 to January 2013 and a decline of 10,600 government jobs, leading to a total gain of 1,800 nonfarm jobs. DWD attributed the government jobs decline largely to a change in the University of Wisconsin System’s payroll schedule.
The numbers were based on a monthly survey from 3.5 percent of Wisconsin employers, a survey DWD Secretary Reggie Newson said is not as accurate as others. DWD said in a statement the monthly data is often revised significantly.
Laura Dresser, associate director of Center on Wisconsin Strategy, warned against reading too much into the monthly report. January’s jump in the unemployment rate, she said, does not necessarily show a trend.
The state’s unemployment rate, which remains below the national 7.9 percent rate, would be troubling if it remains that way for a few months, she said.
“It takes more than one month of change in this data to know that it’s a new direction and not just a blip,” Dresser said.
In its report, DWD also announced the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics revised monthly data from the past year. The revised data, DWD said, showed last year’s monthly data underestimated total nonfarm jobs by 67,100.
Monthly jobs reports from DWD, including this most recent one, come with a warning that the monthly estimates have recently gone against other economic indicators. The revised data, the statement said, puts the monthly data in line with those indicators, which all show positive job growth in the state.
“Today’s revised totals show just how far off the mark those initial [monthly] estimates were,” Newson said in a statement. “While we are encouraged to see the revisions bring this data series into closer alignment with other indicators showing economic improvement in Wisconsin, we will continue to monitor the series.”
DWD also releases quarterly data that comes from a survey of 96 percent of the state’s employers, but is less timely. The quarterly data, which DWD frequently calls “actual jobs data,” is not yet out for 2012, although for 2011, it showed Wisconsin added 29,800 private sector jobs, according to the statement.
Melissa Baldauff, the Democratic Party of Wisconsin’s research and digital director, said in a statement DWD was trying to “spin” the monthly data that showed an increase in unemployment.
Baldauff pointed to the quarterly data putting Wisconsin as the 42nd worst state in job creation and noted the 29,800 private sector job increase was far from Walker’s campaign promise of adding 250,000 jobs by the end of his term.
“Yesterday’s unprofessional and self-serving press release was designed to obscure the fact that Wisconsin’s employment creation has been modest at best, even with the improved federal jobs numbers,” Baldauff said. “This isn’t Scott Walker’s first blatant misuse of a state agency to serve his political ambitions, and it certainly won’t be the last.”
