A recent study conducted by the University of Wisconsin suggests despite voters’ ability to turn their ballots in early, the practice does not facilitate a greater election turnout.
UW political science professor Kenneth Mayer said he initially believed these early voting procedures would give way to higher poll numbers.
“It makes intuitive sense that] if voting was more convenient, turnout would only increase,” Mayer said.
Mayer was among a group of UW political scientists that conducted a study of the election turnout in the 2008 presidential election assessing the correlation between alternative voting options and voting participation. They analyzed the 2008 election returns in the 3,100 counties of the U.S., taking into consideration their individual variations in demographics and ecology.
Surprisingly, the results of the study showed turnout in counties with early voting was about three percentage points lower than in counties without it. The study concluded, “If the motivation for election reform is increasing turnout, states should not look to early voting, especially on its own.”
“It would seem [early voting] actually causes voter turnout to go down,” Mayer said. “Since then, we’ve concluded most of the people who vote early vote anyways.”
Mayer added despite the drop in only a few percentage points, the significance of the numbers is much more acute as it is within a context of millions of people across several counties.
After the study was published in 2009, census data later reinforced the characteristics of voters and non-voters that were primarily demonstrated in the study.
Mayer and other political scientists involved identified two potential reasons early voting could impede voter turnout.
Among these factors is the theory potential voters are deterred by the two-step early voting process, which includes registration and casting the ballot weeks or months later. Previous studies also suggest early voting erodes the strength of traditional “get out the vote” efforts in the waning days of an election.
“People marginally connected to politics are less likely to vote because of less advertising, depending on state,” Mayer said. “Advertising is half as efficient in states where early voting is an option, since there is less focus on election day and less attention devoted to the election itself.”
Some states that allowed early ballot-casting and registration on the same day in 2008, including Iowa, Wyoming and North Carolina, showed higher amounts of turnout than the 58 percent national rate. The study was limited to data collected over a one-year span, leaving the study open to criticism from potential results of the coming election years.
UW political science professor Donald Downs said providing early voting options for individuals may lessen the excitement and resulting participation in an election.
“The more the election is extended, the less importance is weighed upon the day of voting, and if people have other stuff going on they are even less likely to vote,” Downs said. “People have a lot of reasons for less incentive to vote.”
Downs added the size and importance of an election may also affect overall turnout.
“I would think in a smaller election, there would be even less turnout,” Downs said. “The less important the election, the less turnout it sees. Early voting isn’t going to change that.”
