A recently published study by ACT shows the national average of college freshmen returning to the same institution for their sophomore year has fallen to its lowest percentage in 25 years.

“Last year, 66 percent of all students, at all two-year and four-year schools, returned to the same school for their second year, and the year before that it was 68 percent, and in 2005-06 it was 69 percent,” said Ed Colby, spokesperson for ACT, Inc. “What we don’t know is where those students are going, what they’re doing, if they’re transferring to different institutions, if they’re dropping out, if they’re stopping out, or maybe a combination of all those things.”

According to Colby, the most unexpected data collected was at two-year public colleges. Two-year public colleges traditionally have lower retention rates than four-year institutions due to the very nature of those schools, which often don’t have the same year-to-year retention expectations as four-year institutions.

However, this year, the number of students returning for a second year at two-year colleges was at the highest level ACT has ever seen.

“The one that was a surprise, however, is that retention at two-year public colleges — essentially community colleges — was up this past year, bucking the trend,” Colby said.

Colby added that the reverse trend among two-year public schools, in terms of returning students, leads them to wonder if the economy is not playing a role in the declining retention rates at four-year schools, particularly private schools, which tend to cost more than two-year public colleges.

However, it is impossible to know for certain why the retention rates have dropped, leaving researchers only to speculate. A variety of theories have been put forward.

“Access has also increased,” Colby said. “More students are attending colleges, applying to colleges, so that certainly could play a role, too.”

The University of Wisconsin, however, has managed to keep its freshman retention rates at a much higher percentage than the national average.

“For the students who were new freshmen in fall 2006, 93.6 percent were retained to the second year,” said Jocelyn Milner, University of Wisconsin administrator at the department of Academic Planning and Analysis. “We work really hard at that.”

According to Milner, UW retention rates have been more than 90 percent for well over a decade.

“It’s a sign that because admissions are competitive, the students who choose UW-Madison are here because they want to be here. For them, it’s a choice that they are making. Aspiration is an important part of motivation,” Milner said.

Milner also added the current economic crisis makes it difficult to forecast what the impact on retention rates will be because it is such an unprecedented time.

“The university’s campaign to increase financial aid couldn’t come at a better time,” Milner said. “Hopefully, those two things will offset each other.”