In past years, the women’s Big Ten tournament has provided only the occasional upset. Last season, for example, sixth-seeded Illinois pulled off the only major upset, winning 80-68 over third-seeded Wisconsin. This year, most teams’ seeds seem accurate. Only one team, Ohio State, appears ready to clatter into Indianapolis wearing Cinderella’s slippers.
WISCONSIN
The sixth-seeded Badgers have lost nine of their last 10 games. They’re fresh off Sunday’s 82-55 shellacking at the hands of Ohio State, a game in which Wisconsin committed 32 turnovers. And UW’s leading scorer, power forward Jessie Stomski, may miss the tournament due to concussion. The Big Ten’s limpest team will beat Northwestern in the first round. Then they’ll have to ponder an NIT invitation when Minnesota drops them like Visine a day later.
Wins needed for NCAA berth: two
MINNESOTA
Big Ten freshman of the year Jenal McCarville and player of the year Lindsay Whalen each shot above 56 percent to carry the Gophers to the third seed and a first-round bye. Minnesota finished the year 7-2, although it lost two of its last three games. Whalen and McCarville will blitz Wisconsin in the quarterfinals. They’ll ride the momentum all the way to Monday’s final.
Wins needed for NCAA berth: locked
NORTHWESTERN
The Yale of the Midwest hasn’t won a Big Ten game since January 2000. Only one NU player, Sarah Kwasinski, scores more than 10 points a game (by contrast, four Gophers do). The last seed will die gruesomely in their first game, against Wisconsin. In the room known as the Big Ten, Northwestern is the big, wet sheepdog: They stink, and everybody knows it.
Wins needed for NCAA berth: Big Ten championship.
OHIO STATE
The seventh-seeded Buckeyes are the field’s hardest team to read. They killed Wisconsin Sunday and won three of their last four, but that doesn’t make up for losses to Illinois and Michigan State. Four players score at least 10 points a game, so OSU won’t worry about a playoff slump. The Buckeyes will spear the Spartans in round one and win Friday in overtime against Penn State. Midnight will strike Sunday, however, in the semis against Minnesota.
Wins needed for NCAA berth: Big Ten championship.
MICHIGAN STATE
It’s trouble when your best player comes off the bench. The 10th-seeded Spartans’ Syreeta Bromfield averages 16 points, but no one in the starting five scores even 10 points a game. MSU won a couple big games this year (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State), and its robust defense compensates for an anemic offense. Ohio State, however, simply has too many weapons.
Wins needed for NCAA berth: Big Ten championship
PENN STATE
Kelly Mazzante and Jess Strom fill out the Big Ten’s best backcourt. Mazzante led the league in scoring, and Strom is unquestionably its best point guard. But, the second-seeded Nittany Lions still look like a poor-man’s Minnesota. An average-at-best post presence may sentence the Lions to second-round ignominy.
Wins needed for NCAA berth: locked
PURDUE
Think of the Big Ten tournament as a five-day scrimmage for the top-seeded Boilermakers. Guard Kelly Komara plays better defense than anybody in the Big Ten. Forward Shereka Wright poses a threat from anywhere on the floor. And Purdue simply doesn’t lose in Indiana. The victory trophy is Purdue’s to squander.
Wins needed for NCAA berth: locked
ILLINOIS
The eighth-seeded Illini played themselves out of a first-round bye, losing six of their last seven Big Ten games. But forwards Iveta Marcauskaite and Cindy Dallas still rank as one of the conference’s best frontcourt duos. Marcauskaite ranks fifth in scoring, and Dallas is the Big Ten’s most prolific rebounder. Michigan is the only team Illinois can beat regularly (the Illini drilled the Wolverines twice this season). Luckily for Illinois, the teams meet in the first round. Purdue will end the Illini’s season in the quarterfinals.
Wins needed for NCAA berth: Big Ten championship
MICHIGAN
Before the season, Big Ten coaches picked ninth-seeded Michigan to tie with Purdue for the conference title. The Wolverines, however, never recovered after losing six of their first seven league games. Four players average double-figure points, but the Wolverines won just six Big Ten games. These underachievers will lose to Illinois for the third time this year in the first round.
Wins needed for NCAA berth: three
IOWA
Iowa’s Big Ten season ran in streaks: five straight wins here, three consecutive losses there and four wins in five games to end the season. Guard Lindsey Meder (17 points per game) would score more if forwards Kristina Lillis and Jerica Watson didn’t play so well. Should the fourth-seeded Hawkeyes defeat Indiana ? and the smart money says they will ? they’ll have the bad luck of facing Purdue in the semifinals.
Wins needed for NCAA berth: one
INDIANA
Three straight wins to close the season vaulted the Hoosiers to the fifth seed. Their team revolves around center Jill Chapman, maybe the Big Ten’s best post player. The Hoosiers lost to Iowa 73-65 in January. Friday’s loss will make it two in a row.
Wins needed for NCAA berth: two
