Donald Trump is a bombastic man, so when he claimed Tuesday the national Republican primary is “pretty much over” if he wins Wisconsin, we all know to take it with a grain of salt. But, in this instance, he couldn’t be more right.
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Trump has a near 300 delegate lead over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, only needing 501 more delegates to clinch the Republican nomination. With 943 delegates still up for grabs, Trump has a fairly good chance of crossing the delegate threshold. Cruz is a long shot to win and Ohio Gov. John Kasich mathematically cannot secure the nomination. It is a Cruz-versus-Trump race, with Wisconsin being an important piece in the primary puzzle.
Trump’s claims can be substantiated as true by looking to the future. The next primaries after Wisconsin are in New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut, Maryland and Rhode Island. Trump, being a New Yorker, has the clear advantage in the Northeastern states. He’s double-digits points ahead, according to the latest polls, in every one of these states except for Maryland, where he’s only in the lead by nine points.
After these six primaries, the only states left voting are located in the Midwest and West, except for one state — New Jersey. If Trump wins all the eastern states outright — a big “if” — he would have accumulated more than 1,000 delegates, which is what makes the Wisconsin primary so crucial for Trump. Trump won’t win every eastern state outright; it’s something that hasn’t yet happened in this election cycle. But Trump can build a substantial lead.
Wisconsin is the predictor of Trump’s Midwestern success after these eastern primaries conclude. We help to shed light on the West’s results due to our recent fusion of mainstream and Tea Party Republicans. Trump fits into neither of these categories, so analyzing where his support comes from in Wisconsin is crucial to his campaign.
If Trump ends up carrying Wisconsin, it bodes well for his ability to get support from all types of Republicans, signaling his eventual win of the Republican primary. If he loses Wisconsin, it shows he cannot unify the Republican base. The latest polling suggests the latter.
Poll shows more Wisconsinites likely to vote Republican than Democrat
Either way, Trump is not going anywhere, and in my estimation, he has the only shot to win the Republican primary outright. It’s time to come to grips with the possibility of a Trump presidency.
Aaron Reilly ([email protected]) is a freshman majoring in comparative literature and Russian.
