Even terrorists have trouble creating new speaking points. In a taped audio message last week, Osama bin Laden made his usual arrogant claims that the United States is weak and that Muslims who support his cause are all but assured an eventual victory in the Middle East. Yet, in a surprising twist, bin Laden mentioned two unique ideas that make this most recent audiotape interesting. First, bin Laden stated that the majority of Americans would like to see an American exodus from the region, as evidenced by the results of opinion polls. Second, bin Laden, being the honorable, reasonable and insane terrorist that he is, offered the United States a conditional truce that would create "peace, stability and reconciliation."
So what do these new, unique clauses reveal both about bin Laden and the global terrorist network that previous audiotapes have not yet shed light upon? And what repercussions, if any, will they produce? To equivocate, the answers are both a lot and a little.
Analyzing these clauses reveals several things. First, wherever bin Laden is, his mention of the polls shows that he is still receiving a great deal of assistance. For him to have evaded capture for so long, yet still be able to receive relatively contemporary news information shows that he still has extensive channels of communication through which he has also been able to prolong his evasion. Yet this level of sophistication also highlights the lengths to which bin Laden must go to avoid detection. And when taking the length of time between the releases of his messages into account, it further displays an inability to be truly effective.
Second, his offer of a truce tries to portray him as a reasonable and compassionate leader. While Americans will not be swayed by this, it can still have an impact in the Muslim world. A truce would essentially mean the capitulation of all American interests in the region and a myriad of other stipulations that would degrade liberty in the Middle East and possibly here as well. The offer of a truce is probably viewed as farcical to those concerned in the United States both because of what it would actually entail and the audacity of even asking a country that refuses to negotiate with terrorists. This is why it serves as the perfect rhetorical device. For those sympathetic to the radical Muslim cause or those embittered by the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan, the refusal of a truce by the United States allows bin Laden and his cronies to further exploit American interests as being wholly negative and contrary to the interests of Muslims.
Furthermore, the audiotape itself communicates several facts. Analysis on Al-Jazeera television commented on the significant disparity between the quality of bin Laden's tape and that of his primary aide, Ayman al-Zawahiri. The relative high quality of Zawahiri's tape and the low quality of bin Laden's indicates that the two men hide in different locations under different circumstances. This might signal that the al-Qaida network is becoming more disconnected as a result of increased measures by both American and foreign forces to curtail their activities.
Also, as with previous audiotapes, bin Laden uses rhetorical speech and allusions that are highly significant to Muslims, which is an aspect of the tapes that might be lost on most Americans. The offer of the truce mimics an offer from Mohammed to a rival group which he later defeated and the grandiose death threats also usually are heavily steeped in Koranic language. These allusions serve to create the image of bin Laden as the only person in the world capable of leading Islam against the West.
What is to be learned from this — both from the meaningless and the potentially meaningful — is that the audiotapes still hold power. Though he is nearly incapacitated as an effective leader of a global terrorist organization, bin Laden serves as the symbol of radical Islam, and while even the most hyperbolic statement carries no threat to the United States, his sentiments carry authority and the ability to galvanize additional support. If anything, this serves as a notice to Americans that the real face of terrorism is still out there, and the true war on terror will not be finished until someone has collected the $50 million bounty on bin Laden.
Mike Skelly ([email protected]) is a senior majoring in finance and political science.