A lot can happen in a year. Passions subside, scandals are forgotten, and a whole set of new intrigues surface. The possible contingencies are infinite, so why are so many members of the media already hypothesizing on the outcomes of next year's congressional elections? This rampant speculation can be attributed to a miscalculation of the pertinence of the newest batch of opinion polls.

With a record low approval rating of 36 percent as recorded by Newsweek, Bush and his administration have been thrust into dire times, and their current vulnerability has set off a firestorm in the media. The concept that these pundits fail to grasp, though, is that weakness today does not necessarily foretell future frailty. So if these polls cannot be counted on to predict next year's electoral results, what exactly are they good for?

A poll serves as a temporary indicator of public sentiment. It should not be construed as a measure of political capital, since it is prone to frequent fluctuations. Nearly every president in modern times has had to fare a period of similar approval ratings. During May 1993, Bill Clinton matched Bush's current approval rating of 36 percent, but still managed to bounce back, winning a second term and becoming one of the most popular second-term presidents ever.

This fickleness of the polls stems from an equally fickle public. It is unfortunate to say, but public sentiment, in the short run, is easily manipulated. This is not a result of the public being uninformed, but more so a tendency to react quickly to contemporary news events.

If there is any merit to the idea these polls augur a defeat for the Republicans in the midterm elections, it is not reflected in the president's approval rating, but in the judgment of his character and his standing among Republicans. In a question that asked respondents whether they believed that Mr. Bush was "honest and ethical," only 42 percent said they believed he was, while 50 percent said they believed he was not. This is where the real problem may lie because while approval ratings have a predilection towards short-term variations, credibility is a much more elusive intangible to regain.

Furthermore, in many of the categories on character, such as the "honest and ethical" question or other queries regarding the current intelligence gaffes, a sizable minority of Republican respondents sided against President Bush.

While the overwhelming majority of Republicans supported the Bush administration, the solid minority who did not poses a potential vulnerability. The Bush administration, and the entire Republican Party for that matter, has supported itself over the last few years by ensuring the absolute loyalty of its base. That there are now signs of uncertainty and potential fragmentation in that base makes it harder to rally support to accomplish the administration's goals.

This is where the polls can potentially become significant. While no question elicited a negative response from more than 30 percent of Republican respondents, if these numbers were to stay stable or increase slightly over the next year, then it could possibly have a stifling effect on the administration. President Bush has had a polarizing effect on the nation, eliciting either strong support or equally strong opposition, and not much in between. The polarization created by the president makes him truly dependent on a loyal base, and thus, if numbers remain similar to their current levels, it could either create a backlash against the Bush agenda or serve as a disincentive to supporters to go out and vote the party ticket.

Yet all of this evidence still remains hearsay. There is no way to forecast whether Republicans will be able to regain their fringe supporters, or that the current political scandals will be resolved in a timely manner.

The uncertainty of political events will always create an environment that is in constant flux, thus creating a system that is nearly impossible to predict in the long run, relegating even the most articulate, logical assessment of a future event into a mere guess. Thus, in the realm of polling, one must regard hypotheses regarding future political outcomes as just that — hypothetical.

Mike Skelly ([email protected]) is a senior majoring in finance and political science.