This year a rare and fascinating event may happen in American politics: our next president may be chosen by the House of Representatives.
For those of you unfamiliar with the process of choosing a president and vice president, if any candidate does not garner a majority of Electoral College votes, which is currently 270, the selection is then moved to Congress. The House votes on the president, the Senate votes on vice president. Each state only gets one vote, and must come to an agreement among their representatives or senators or else they cannot vote.
If you didn’t know this already, don’t fret — the last time the House was involved in a presidential election was 1824. Coincidentally, the 1824 election resulted in the selection of John Quincy Adams, who lost the popular vote to Andrew Jackson and who, until 2000, was the only son of a former president to obtain his father’s office.
An unlikely turn of events this year has primed us for this rare constitutional act. While most states follow a winner-take-all format, Maine and Nebraska follow a districting method that allocates Electoral College votes according to congressional district, with the extra two votes assigned to the winner of the popular vote. All five of Nebraska’s electoral votes are clearly in president Bush’s pocket, but with polling close in Maine, it is conceivable that one of the congressional districts would vote for the president, thus splitting one electoral vote away from Sen. Kerry. Electoral math indicates that this wouldn’t be enough to force a vote in Congress, but two other unusual factors come into play.
On Nov. 2, the citizens of Colorado will be voting on a new state constitutional amendment that changes the way the state’s nine electoral votes are cast. Under the new plan, those electoral votes would be split according to the percentage of popular vote. Right now, Bush is polling at 52% and Kerry at 44% (Survey USA, Oct. 7). This would split the vote 5/4 in favor of the president.
Interestingly, Colorado’s amendment would go into effect before the Electoral College convenes on Dec. 13. Current polling shows a deadlock between those in favor of the amendment and those opposed. A legal challenge is expected should the amendment pass, as Republican Gov. Bill Owens has vowed to fight on all fronts, calling the proposal “partisan” and “retroactive.”
He may have a solid legal argument. Article II of the Constitution says “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors.” The Colorado amendment is being voted on directly by the people of Colorado, not the Legislature. Proponents argue that there are Supreme Court precedents supporting the right of the people to choose.
In West Virginia, an elector has vowed he will not vote for president Bush should West Virginia’s five electoral votes swing that way. Elector Richie Robb has publicly stated that he will not vote for the president, but will instead abstain as protest against president Bush’s economic policies.
Should Bush win the Electoral College vote 270-268, that one faithless elector will send the vote to Congress.
Once in Congress, the president stands a better chance of election, as Republican representatives dominate more states than Democratic representatives. It’s interesting to note that some states, such as Wisconsin, have an even number of representatives, split evenly Democrat and Republican, and will not be able to vote if they cannot come to an agreement. Since each state only gets one vote, if a majority cannot be found that state will not be able to cast their vote.
Should no candidate receive the magic 270 needed for victory, expect a wide range of legal challenges, statewide recounts and political maneuvering. It could again be an incredibly long time before the dust settles and we discover which man leads our country for the next four years. Of course, all does not bode well for a president selected by the House. In 1824, following in his father’s footsteps, John Quincy Adams lost his bid for re-election, soundly trounced by Andrew Jackson.
Charles Parsons ([email protected]) is a senior majoring in literature.
