As pundits and political consultants nationwide analyzed the results of the California recall election, battle for control over the Republican Party intensified once again. For several years, prominent Republicans have struggled with questions regarding the GOP’s stance on social issues. As Arnold Schwarzenegger, a social liberal, decisively won the election, these questions were resurrected.
The New York Times published a story Saturday on this subject. In the story, Christie Whitman (former Environmental Protection Agency head and New Jersey governor), William Weld (former Massachusetts governor), and Rick Davis (a consultant for Sen. John McCain) commented on the results. These individuals consider themselves moderate Republicans and have encouraged the GOP to become more centrist, especially on social issues.
Whitman explained, “How [Schwarzenegger] won tells me that his message — he’s both fiscally conservative and socially inclusive and moderate — was one that appeals to the middle.”
Whitman also stated her desire to see more candidates with a similar message. “It’s a socially inclusive message but not hard-edged and leaving people out, and I think that’s a national thing,” she said.
None of these individuals commented on Tom McClintock receiving 13 percent of the vote. McClintock, the other prominent Republican in the race, ran with a far more socially conservative stance. Although McClintock finished a distant third in the race, this result reveals an important insight into the voters’ mindset.
The 13 percent who voted for McClintock did so likely with the knowledge that Schwarzenegger enjoyed only a slim and declining lead over Democrat Cruz Bustamante in a Knight-Ridder poll released the day before the election. This sizable minority of voters decided to vote on principle and not on the lesser of two evils, even if it resulted in electing the greater evil.
In some recent elections, third-party candidates have siphoned away enough Republican votes to give Democrats the victory. The vast majority of votes received by Reform Party candidate H. Ross Perot in the 1992 presidential election came from Republicans who lost faith in former President Bush as a fiscal conservative. Similarly, Libertarian candidate Ed Thompson likely affected the outcome of the 2002 Wisconsin governor’s election.
In a sense, McClintock was essentially a third-party candidate in this race. In other elections, a third-party candidate who receives as many votes would likely dramatically change the results. For this reason, in future elections, Republican politicians should perhaps think twice about abandoning conservatives who feel strongly about social issues.
Fortunately, President Bush’s re-election advisors have not yet succumbed to the demands of the social liberals in the GOP. In the same New York Times story, Matt Dowd, a senior advisor for President Bush’s re-election campaign, makes an excellent point when noting that the California recall election was more a referendum on Gray Davis and his economic policies, rather than on other issues. Throughout the campaign, Schwarzenegger emphasized his differences with Davis on economic issues while minimizing discussion on social issues.
The GOP must also recognize the policy reasons for sustaining its social conservatism. In a recent interview with Sean Hannity and Alan Colmes of Fox News, Dr. Alan Keyes outlined this point.
“The issues of crime, the issues that are concerning us with health, the issues that concern us with family — all these things on which we spend trillions of dollars are traceable to the moral decay of this country that results from the abandonment of our moral principles– and that’s what Schwarzenegger represents,” Keyes said.
In a column two weeks ago, I explained how the breakdown of the family has led to a crisis in the entitlements system and to possible problems with underpopulation in the future. However, the decline in the sanctity of human life has become an even more important problem facing the United States today, and more than 30 years of legalized abortion have certainly contributed to this.
The disastrous impacts that abortion and family breakdown have had alone should provide reason for the GOP to sustain its social conservatism. However, a few liberals in the party seek to abandon traditional values for political reasons. In doing so, they forget the impact of third-party candidates, but more importantly, they miss an opportunity to communicate the importance of social conservatism. Polls and election results should tell politicians what to communicate, not what to believe, especially on the critical issues of family and abortion.
Mark Baumgardner ([email protected]) is a senior majoring in electrical engineering.