With elections approaching and campaigning kicking into high gear, former Gov. Tommy Thompson is holding onto a slight majority in the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin, according to the latest Public Policy Polling findings.
Over the course of the past six weeks, Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., has been losing ground in the poll, dropping four points from her 45-45 tie with Thompson earlier in July. Meanwhile, Thompson seems to be gaining momentum, increasing from 45 to 49 percent, according to the poll.
Thompson defeated several other Republican candidates in the Aug. 14 primary, including Madison businessman Eric Hovde, Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald and former U.S. Representative Mark Neumann.
According to the same PPP poll, 45 percent of the voters in Wisconsin want the Republican Party to control the Senate, while 44 percent prefer the Democrats have control. Thompson is also leading Baldwin by three points among the independent voters of Wisconsin.
The results from the Rasmussen reports’ latest telephone survey show Thompson winning 54 percent of likely voters and Baldwin with 43 percent. The remaining 3 percent are made up of those who would prefer another candidate and those that are undecided.
Thompson’s victory in the Republican primary, and GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s selection of U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Janesville, as his running mate, have given more national attention and energy to the GOP in Wisconsin.
In turn, the party has elected to spend $3.7 million campaigning in Wisconsin in hopes of taking Wisconsin in the national elections.
Donald Downs, University of Wisconsin political science professor and adviser to The Badger Herald, said he thinks Thompson’s lead is no surprise. He said if President Barack Obama had more influence in Wisconsin, Baldwin might have a stronger ability to sway the state.
“Tommy certainly has to be considered the favorite. His relative moderation will also help him with independents and moderate Dems. Tammy is a shrewd politician but also a Madison liberal, which doesn’t always appeal outside urban areas,” Downs said in an email to The Badger Herald. “She will be helped, though, by the anti-[Gov. Scott] Walker movement. Thompson will be helped, in turn, by the Paul Ryan enthusiasm.”
However, UW political science professor Barry Burden said he does not believe Romney’s increased momentum in Wisconsin has any connection to Thompson’s increased success in the Senate race. He said Thompson’s success can be attributed to notoriety among Wisconsinites.
“At the moment the only issue connecting the two campaigns is discussion of both Thompson and Romney’s tax returns. Obamacare is also a possible link between the two races, as both Thompson and Romney are critical of the law but have endorsed elements of it in the past,” Burden said in an email to The Badger Herald.
The PPP results also show no decrease in Walker’s favorability ratings. Fifty-one percent of voters approve of the job he has done as governor, while 46 percent do not approve.
