Human capital reform, global rebalancing and insight on China’s recent political transition were among the topics at a economics conference on campus Friday.
The day-long conference, “United States-China Economic Relation in the Wake of Political Transition,” was organized by UW’s China’s Economic Forum, a University of Wisconsin student organization.
UW professors specializing in economics, public affairs and political science spoke at the conference, including Ananth Seshadri, Menzie Chinn, Maria Muniagurria and Melanie Manion.
Seshadri, a UW economics professor and former chair of the department, spoke about the importance of human capital concerning economic development, noting it is considered “the driver of technical change and economic growth.”
Seshadri argued China’s current levels of human capital are too low. He also said more open labor markets, greater equitable government subsidies to education and fewer restrictions on mobility will enhance China’s human capital.
In relation to the U.S., Seshadri said China’s human capital investments are too inequitably distributed across regions, citing only 2.5 percent of China’s Gross National Product was public expenditures in education and 30 percent was spent on physical capital in 1995 compared to the U.S.’s 5.4 percent on education and 17 percent on physical capital.
Muniagurria, a senior lecturer of economics, highlighted China’s demographic transition and the economic implications of the eventual decrease in the number of working age citizens.
“If there is a large percentage of the population that is working age and the right policies are being taken advantage of, then the added productivity of this group can create a ‘demographic dividend’ of economic growth,” she said.
Muniagurria also explained how the “demographic dividend,” or the beneficial demographic transition period where a significant amount of the population is at working age, can account for one-fourth of China’s economic growth between 1980-2000.
China lacks the buffering effect of immigration and therefore faces greater challenges than the U.S. regarding the aging labor force, she said.
Chinn, a public affairs professor, also addressed the possibility of global rebalancing between the U.S. and China.
As of right now, the U.S. is importing more than they are exporting and China is exporting more than they are importing, Chinn said. According to Chinn, such a situation is not necessarily good for the U.S. economy as it leads to increased borrowing.
Using International Monetary Fund forecasts, Chinn also predicted if the Chinese currency, the yuan, stays at its current rate and productivity growth continues, global imbalance will continue.
As a complement to the previous economic forecasts and analysis, Manion, a political science professor, presented on China’s recent election of Xi Jinping and 25 other members to the Politburo.
Manion discussed the sweeping leadership transition to the Politburo, including 60 percent of “new faces,” concluding that the political nature of the U.S.-China economic relationship is also a political one.
Susan Hering, the economics department’s academic advisor, said she is grateful for the students’ efforts to bridging an ocean of cultural differences through events like this.
“Because of the understanding of the intertwining national economies, we know that we are all truly in this world together,” Hering said.