With the help of projections, hundreds of figures and statistical graphs, economic experts presented data at the University of Wisconsin Friday on the outlook for the economic future of the nation.
Executive Development Program Director Chuck Krueger organized the event and said the dozens of business professionals in attendance represented a cross section of people from Wisconsin and Illinois.
"It was pointed out by several people … what is making headlines — sub-prime mortgages with the gloom and doom," Krueger said. "But that's a very small part of the economy. It's overblown by the press, who doesn't really understand that size or impact. This puts a little more perspective to the situation."
Jay Mueller, Senior Portfolio Manager of Wells Capital Management, presented data from the past and present to analyze trends and predict the future of the U.S. economy.
Mueller concluded that the economic outlook is cloudy with the housing market having a significant role.
"Housing is the swing factor, and we have not seen the worst yet," Mueller said. "There has been a tremendous drop in home sales and home construction."
Mueller predicted a 20 percent chance of a "downward spiral" in the near future, where the country could be pulled into a recession.
And according to Donald Nichols, UW professor emeritus of economics and public affairs, the situation may be even worse.
"With housing, no one can predict how deep it's going to go — it's going to be deeper than what we've seen so far," Nichols said. "I'm not calling for a recession, but I see the growth rate at, or even below, 1 percent. I think we're just going to stall for a bit."
But Nichols' pessimistic view was matched with positive outlooks for the future by both Neil George, editor of Personal Finance, one of the largest investment newsletters in the country, and Anthony Chan, managing director at JPMorgan private client services.
Bob Andersen, president of a local office supplies store, said he was satisfied to see the perspective each lecturer brought. The predictions, Andersen said, are not as concerning as some suggest.
"It's good to gather all of this information," he said. "I thought the best was that it's not all gloom and doom."
To put the economic situation to a broader comparison, Mueller presented data from the early 1990s, when unemployment peaked at nearly 8 percent and has since dropped to 4.5 percent.
Mueller also analyzed the 2001 recession, calling it "fairly mild" in a historical sense because of the federal budget deficit, which has dropped from around $400 billion to nearly half that figure.
"Since 2004, the economy has grown rapidly," Mueller said. "We have to think, is $200 billion a problem, or is it okay?"
With the economic future in question, Mueller pointed to a recent speech by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke on entitlement spending in programs like Medicare and Social Security.
"Overall, even though we're in a gridlock, we're not in terribly bad shape short-term," Mueller said. "Long-term is not so bright due to entitlement issues with the age demographics, what Ben Bernanke calls the 'entitlement explosion.'"
