Senator John Kerry maintains a sizable lead over the competition in the days leading up to the New Hampshire primary this Tuesday, with former Vermont Governor Howard Dean trailing a distant second.

After his surprise win in Iowa, Kerry’s New Hampshire ratings surged over Dean by 13 percentage points, according to Sunday’s Gallup poll results.

Former retired Gen. Wesley Clark’s ratings have been slipping since the Iowa caucus, falling 11 percentage points in a week to put him in fifth place behind Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.). Neither Clark nor Lieberman ran in Iowa in order to focus their campaign efforts in New Hampshire. Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) is currently in fifth place.

Many experts believe that despite Kerry’s large lead, the final tally in New Hampshire remains difficult to predict due to the state’s considerable number of independent voters. The New Hampshire electorate consists of more registered independents than democrats.

“If there is a low turnout, it will be mostly democrats; if there is high turnout, it will be mostly independents,” University of Wisconsin political science professor Byron Shafer said. If more independent voters come to the polls than democrats, self-described independents Edwards and Clark could win more votes in New Hampshire than Kerry or Dean.

Polls proved completely unreliable in Iowa last week, where favorite Dean finished a disappointing third and Kerry and Edwards captured first and second place, respectively.

Despite the surprising results from Iowa, many believe the Iowa caucus is proving to be a huge force in shaping the New Hampshire race, as Kerry rides on a huge wave of momentum into the Tuesday election while Dean battles to simply keep his campaign afloat.

“Without his victory in Iowa, Kerry is not the lead story in New Hampshire,” Shafer said. “What Iowa has done to Dean is that he could be destroyed in New Hampshire.”

The Dean campaign, however, holds that the former governor has the resources to stay in the running even if he loses in New Hampshire.

“Our campaign is the strongest nationwide,” Shira Roza, student coordinator of Students for Dean, said. “Regardless of what happens in New Hampshire, Dean has the resources to continue.”

The New Hampshire primary is being touted as a do-or-die contest, where some experts believe all five of the major candidates must finish at least third in the state to remain competitive in the race.

The Feb. 17 Wisconsin primary will prove to be especially crucial this year as well due to its timing. A two-week window surrounds the contest here, meaning Wisconsin will take center stage in the democratic primary and determine which candidate will carry the most momentum into the March 2 Super Tuesday lineup.

By the time the Wisconsin primary rolls around, the race will likely have narrowed to two candidates, making the contest here crucial in deciding who finally captures the democratic nomination.

“No one believes there will be more than two serious candidates in Wisconsin,” Shafer said, arguing that a race with a large candidate pool tends to narrow quickly. “The real duel in the sun could happen in Wisconsin.”