South Region
The selection committee supposedly awarded Duke the easiest region — as in, the one without another dominant or troublesome team. The problem with the South for the Blue Devils is how well layered the region is.
Because of how the brackets are arranged, experts can usually tell which subregionals are more challenging than others; in other words, some sides of the bracket are worth more curiosity than others. But the South’s talent is evenly spread. The two most intriguing second-round matchups (Indiana vs. USC and Pittsburgh vs. Cal or Penn) funnel into opposite sides of the regional, meaning Duke will have to withstand more than one or two bumps to get to the Final Four again.
The first round sees Indiana’s Mike Davis, who has never won an NCAA tournament game, against Utah’s Rick Majerus, who has never lost in the first round. In the meantime, No. 3 Pittsburgh plays Central Connecticut State, owner of the nation’s longest win streak and favorable NCAA experience, without its catalyst Brandin Knight at 100 percent.
The most realistic upset might be No. 11 Penn over Cal, a game that could genuinely go either way. The Quakers already won an unconventional Ivy League playoff while Ben Braun’s team bowed out early in the Pac-10 tournament.
USC, which got to the championship game of that tournament, not to mention the Elite Eight last year, is more tourney-tested. The No. 4 Trojans are also a hot pick to upset Duke. If that happens, it sets up a monumental big-man matchup between Sam Clancy and Alabama’s dominant Erwin Dudley.
East Region
Bob Knight is back in the NCAA tournament, possibly an inciting-enough factor to key a deep run by Texas Tech’s Red Raiders. But don’t forget, Knight was in the habit of first-round exits during his last several years at Indiana.
As usual, though, Knight is the biggest story — something that has taken some of the pressure of Tech’s players during their surprise season and could work to their advantage in the tournament spotlight. Southern Illinois, their first opponent, is no joke with NCAA experience and a win over Indiana earlier in the year.
N.C. State against Michigan State could be one of the best games of the weekend if Tom Izzo’s team can play like it did late in the Big Ten before its early tournament exit. Marcus Taylor was red hot during that stretch and virtually willed this team to an NCAA bid. On the other hand, the Wolfpack executed Herb Sendek’s ball-movement schemes seemingly effortlessly in an ACC-tournament win over Maryland and have the resolve to go far.
It does not hurt whichever team wins that Connecticut, one of the weaker two seeds, is a potential second-rounder. Although, the Hampton draw should raise a few eyebrows after last year.
On the top half, everyone expects Maryland to cruise. With games in the Terrapins backyard the first weekend, that should not really be a problem. But No. 4 Kentucky proved it has a champion’s moxie by sweeping Florida and nearly toppling Duke in December. The only question is whether or not Tubby Smith can keep his team together.
West Region
The so-called “stacked” bracket seems to be designed to force Cincinnati to make its best argument for being a No. 1 seed. That slot’s runner-up, Oklahoma, is hardly the Bearcats’ only competition.
No. 8 UCLA has been a team struggling with chemistry all year, but a cohesive performance against Cincinnati in Pittsburgh is not out of the question; that could be the Bruins’ ticket back to sunny California for the West regional semifinals. Talentwise, there are really no reasons why that should not happen and, no matter his control over the team, Steve Lavin always seems to be able to talk his way into the Sweet 16.
Missouri, likewise, is probably the best No. 12 seed of all time. The Tigers probably did earn the mark they deserved for their regular-season performance and their RPI, but do not forget their close call against Kansas two weeks ago. Then again, Missouri wilted at the finish of a non-conference schedule built for a Final Four push. The flourish of Kareem Rush and company may not be tough enough for Miami’s bruising Big East style.
If Miami does win, its second-round opponent should be Ohio State — a similar mouth-watering matchup to that the Hurricanes won in 2000.
Gonzaga is miffed about its sixth seed, even though such a perch is a lofty recognition for a team from the West Coast Conference. In that case, it had better not lose to the Mountain West regular-season champ Wyoming before it has a chance to prove mettle against national finalist Arizona.
Midwest Region
In a tournament full of high-powered eighth seeds, Kansas had better be watching tape in preparation for No. 9 Western Kentucky in the Midwest. The Hilltoppers are a top-25 team capable of beating anyone (ask the Wildcats) so long as they have center Chris Marcus.
The Jayhawks’ forwards Drew Gooden and Nick Collison are not really built to mark Marcus, and nobody really is.
As a result, the Midwest might be very interesting, with another Big 12 team potentially making waves.
No. 6 Texas has gone by relatively unnoticed all season long, but an injury to Chris Owens did not keep the Longhorns from taking KU in the middle of the conference season. Texas has plenty of athletes to pick up the slack, like one of the best point guards in the country in T.J. Ford. A second-round date with SEC Cinderella Mississippi State is a challenge, but not one Rick Barnes’ team is unprepared for.
West Coast warriors Pepperdine and Oregon might battle in the second round too, if the Waves can knock off Wake Forest. Each team likes to score in bunches, but Pepperdine has a pension for washing out Pac-10 powers. It seemed like Ernie Kent’s year when he and the Ducks won the conference outright by two games, but then UO fell to USC in the renewed tournament.
If the region does shake out like it is supposed to, expect a Midwest final game between Oregon and Kansas to end in the hundreds.
