The second round of upcoming recall elections in Wisconsin promises to be just as memorable as the last round of elections held in 2011. While much of the focus is on the race between Gov. Scott Walker and his yet-to-be-determined challenger, we cannot forget about the four equally important Wisconsin Senate recall elections. 

While the possibility of defeating Walker exists, I feel the probability of this scenario taking place is quite low. This is due to the weakness of the Democratic challengers and the fact that the events that made the recall elections possible was a grassroots movement without a clear leader. However, three of the four senators being recalled in May were first elected in 2010, with the exception of the 13th district, represented by Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald.

These three senators were elected during the national uptick in Republican voting tendencies. This was mostly due to President Barack Obama’s health care mandate, which was passed with a supermajority in both houses and was much like the conditions that allowed repeal of collective bargain for public employees to take place here in Wisconsin. This is important to note since the political pendulum which swung far right to get these three senators elected is now at a more centrist point, allowing for first a larger independent voter base and a more evenly split independent vote. While the conditions that helped Gov. Scott Walker get elected were the same as the conditions that aided the Republican senators, the Democratic challengers of these senators will not have to go through a difficult and detrimental primary with more than one real candidate.

The three districts where the 2012 Senate recall elections will take place have a better reputation for being historically Democratic-leaning or swing districts (once again, excluding the 13th district). Take, for example, the voting tendencies of the districts with failed recalls compared to the three swing districts holding recalls this May. In 2008, the failed recall districts voted for Obama by margins of between 2-6 percent, with the swing districts voting for Obama by margins between 8-12 percent.

Then take these same districts and compare their voting tendencies for the 2004 election between Bush and Kerry. The failed recall districts voted for Bush between 3-15 percent, and the swing districts voted for Bush between 1-7 percent, with one district voting one percent for Kerry. From a historical perspective, this means the current senatorial recalls may have more ground here.

When comparing the individual races with the 2012 Senate recall districts, it is important to note the circumstances that exist in each district. In the 21st district, a rematch is set to take place between Republican incumbent Van Wanggaard and a Democrat, John Lehman. Lehman served one term in the Senate before being defeated.

In the 23rd district, another rematch is set to take place between Republican incumbent Terry Moulton and Democratic candidate Kristen Dexter. However, this first election between the two candidates happened in the Wisconsin State Assembly with Moulton being defeated by Dexter in 2009. The 29th district holds the most interesting circumstance because its state senator elected in 2010 vacated her seat, leaving it open to be filled with the recall election.

The two most likely candidates for the Senate seat would be Republican candidate Jerry Petrowski and Democratic candidate Donna Seidel. This is expected to be the most exciting race since both candidates are currently serving in the Assembly, which therefore means there is no incumbent, which therefore makes it unlike any of the other races. Finally, there is the 13th district’s recall election between Republican incumbent Scott Fitzgerald and Democratic candidate Lori Compas. Compas was the organizer of the recall campaign against Fitzgerald and was inspired by the recall effort to run against him. 

I urge the eligible voters of Wisconsin to be mindful of all aspects and elections in these recalls. The prize for both parties may just be the governorship, but a majority in the Senate is equally valuable.

Jared Mehre ([email protected]) is a freshman with an undeclared major.