After overachieving two seasons ago, the Tampa Bay Rays are looking to make noise once again in the AL East and challenge the Yankees and the Red Sox for the division.
Offense
The Rays lineup starts and ends with Evan Longoria.
For this team to be successful, their third baseman will have to maintain the lofty numbers that we know he is capable of producing. Last season, Longoria did not disappoint, blasting 33 home runs and driving in 113 RBIs. He upped his average by ten points as well, showing improved vision in his second season.
As the season begins, Longoria looks to be in vintage form, already hitting two homers with six RBIs in the Rays’ first seven games. Look for Longoria to once again challenge Alex Rodriguez for the starting third baseman spot on the AL All-Star team.
The most intriguing story for the Rays revolves around the expiring contracts of both Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena.
Both more or less know that this will be their last season in Tampa, and are looking to up their value for free agency. Crawford had one of the best seasons of his career last summer, stealing an unreal 60 bases while hitting over .300. He is looking for a repeat season, and has started very strongly.
While Pena has not started the season particularly well, his production over the past three seasons compares to that of the elite players in the game. Last season Pena hit 39 homeruns with 100 RBIs.
His average is nothing to write home about, but his power makes him one of the most dangerous batters in the AL. Look for his numbers to drop this season, but for him to still reach 30 and 100.
If B.J. Upton can regain the form that made him so deadly two seasons ago, then the Rays have a legitimate shot at challenging for the division. Upton has never played in a full season, and his numbers were down across the board last summer. Look for Upton to regain his form, but not to All-Star levels.
Ben Zobrist, who broke out onto the scene last season with 27 home runs and 91 RBIs, is looking for a repeat season as he shores up the middle of the Rays’ lineup. At 28 years old, Zobrist is in the prime of his baseball career, and should continue to play well.
Pitching
While the Rays’ lineup is quite intimidating, their rotation is very thin.
James Shields, who won 11 games last season but lost 12, is the Rays’ ace of the moment. Shields struck out 167 with a 4.14 ERA last summer. Look for similar numbers this season.
Matt Garza, who has started the season 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA, will pitch in the two-spot for the Rays. While he did not win ten games last season, Garza can throw with some heat and keeps his ERA below four. Look for him to be the best pitcher on the Rays this season.
David Price has the most to gain and the most to lose of any pitcher on the Rays’ staff this season.
After a strong first year in the rotation in which Price won 11 games, the Rays are waiting to see whether he will develop into the ace that they have been hoping he would be. Price silenced many of his critics with a solid outing against the Yankees last week, showing he has what it takes to get out of a jam against the roughest lineup in baseball.
Rafael Soriano, who saved 27 games last season, continues as the Rays’ closer.
Prediction
With one of the best lineups in the game, and the second best in the AL East, what will make or break the Rays is their thin rotation, which could implode if the injury bug hits them hard.
Tampa Bay has the ability to take the division or even the Wild Card if they can maintain the entire season, but I just cannot see it happening. The Rays will remain in contention throughout most of the season, but eventually fall into third place in the AL East and not be able to escape.
Boston’s rotation is too strong to come in third place, and I do not see the Rays beating out the Yankees when all is said and done. The Rays will have one of the best records in the AL, but will still finish in third place in the East.