A little more than one week ago, on Jan. 17, an article on Aviation Week and Space Technology's website reported that the People's Republic of China successfully conducted a test of an anti-satellite missile system. The article stated that U.S. intelligence agencies had learned of a planned test and were watching as the test occurred Jan. 11. The following day, the White House publicly confirmed the news. In a press briefing on Jan.18, White House spokesperson Tony Snow was asked about a U.S. response to the news. He replied, "We are concerned about it, and we've made it known." Since then, the worldwide reaction to the test has been largely negative, with most of the worry coming from the United States. After all, the United States operates the Global Positioning System satellites that determine locations for a multitude of civilian and military operations. Furthermore, many military surveillance and communications satellites are key to the efficient operation of the U.S. military. Clearly, this test has implications for the future, but much of the mainstream media has overreacted to the incident.
First of all, shut off the panic button. The test does not mean that the Chinese are planning to attack the United States or Taiwan or any of its other neighbors. Instead, this situation can be seen as more of a look into the distant future. The satellite targeted by China's test was an old weather satellite. As a result of its non-sensitive nature, the satellite was relatively visible and had a well-known orbit. In other words, the Chinese had a really good idea exactly where that satellite was going to be, making their job of hitting it with a missile much easier.
Luckily for the United States, or for anyone else concerned about having satellites knocked out of the sky, a number of different countermeasures may be useful to protect sensitive satellites. For example, a satellite launched and surrounded by decoy satellites would make the odds of hitting the real satellite much lower. Another idea that seems plausible would be to make satellites less visible to radar. Perhaps coating the satellites in some sort of radar-absorbent material or something similar would make them harder to track. The simplest countermeasure to take might be to simply start placing satellites farther out in orbit from the Earth. A satellite that is orbiting 1000 miles from the planet is harder to hit than a satellite orbiting only 500 miles away. Clearly, the United States has several ways of mitigating the vulnerability of its satellites.
Beyond protecting its own satellites, the United States has other options when it comes to space warfare. The United States has had an anti-satellite capability since the mid 1980s. While the end of the Cold War may have seen a draw in this capability, any attempt to shoot down an American satellite would have dramatic consequences. Also, unlike China, the United States is much farther along the path toward weaponizing space. If sufficiently provoked, the Pentagon may decide that space weaponry is the only option to confront Chinese aggressiveness. This would be an even greater threat to China than reconnaissance satellites and hopefully this possibility will dampen their desire for future provocations.
Although this single test does not in and of itself indicate a desire to decisively confront the United States, other developments in China point to trouble down the road. The Chinese military establishment has been conducting a large buildup and transformation of their forces for several years. Outside of the military arena, China has aggressively pursued the resources it needs to continue growing. If the present political regime survives in China, there is a distinct possibility for conflict within the coming decades. The conflict might erupt over a resource dispute, over an attempt to reclaim Taiwan, or just as a way to distract a discontented public.
What does this mean? The United States needs to take these intervening years to prepare. There will not be a war tomorrow, regardless of what the anti-satellite test looks like. Even in the future, war is not inevitable. However, two decades from now, there may come a time when diplomacy and compromise can no longer manage the conflicting interests of the United States and China. For now, though, the best course of action for the United States is to watch, wait and carefully plan for a future where China can hurt the United States far more than the loss of a few manufacturing jobs.
Andrew Wagner ([email protected]) is a sophomore majoring in computer science and political science.
