I have seen the end.

It ends with the clanging of the ball off the rim. It ends with air balls and desperation heaves.

I have seen the death of the Wisconsin men’s basketball team.

Simply put, this team will not survive past the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. Maybe not even the second game. When that final loss of the season comes, it should surprise nobody. That game is already scripted.

Here’s how it happens.

Wisconsin finds itself behind against a lower-seeded opponent, history indicating it will be a mid-major. To sum up the problem, the other team’s shots are falling and the Badgers’ shots are not – especially from behind the arc.

The biggest difference between the Badgers’ six losses and 21 wins comes in three-point percentage. When UW wins, the 3-pointers fall, and when it loses, they don’t. Last night’s win over Michigan was the season in a nutshell: make a 3-pointer, win the game.

In games where Wisconsin won by 10 or more points, the Badgers shot 49.1 percent from the field and 43 percent on 3-pointers. In wins by nine or fewer points, UW posted a 43-percent field goal percentage and shot 34.6 percent from behind the arc.

In losses, UW shot just 38 percent from the field and 29.1 percent on 3-pointers.

A simple argument might be made that because the Badgers were behind in the losses, they were forced to take more chances on long shots. But in losses, Wisconsin averaged 23 attempts from 3-point range, while in wins, they averaged 21.9 attempts – only about one fewer attempt. Not much of a difference.

In wins, the Badgers made an average of 8.5 threes, while in losses, just 6.7 – almost two fewer and a possible six-point swing. Three of UW’s losses came by fewer than six points and none by more than eight.

Wisconsin is just too reliant on the 3-pointer this season. It is both the boon and bane of this edition of the swing offense.

Typically, the point of the swing is to move the ball around enough to get it into a position for a high-percentage shot, usually from the post. UW milks the shot clock and patiently waits for the shot it wants. In this offense, guards have to be able to work inside, and big men have to feel comfortable at the perimeter.

Part of the beauty of the swing is it can adapt easily to the personnel coach Bo Ryan has any given year. But this season, the big men feel maybe a little too comfortable at the perimeter.

Point guard Jordan Taylor has taken the most 3-point attempts for the Badgers this season with 127. However, Wisconsin’s two most-often used big players, forwards Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil, rank second and third on the team in attempts with 121 and 101, respectively.

Big men that can shoot from the perimeter are a plus. Having a big man that relies on the 3-pointer (54 percent of Nankivil’s points come from threes) can be a liability.

Knowing this, as an opposing team, there are two basic options for defending the Badgers: Avoid getting beaten by the 3-pointer and let them work the ball inside to Leuer, who averages 19.3 points per game, or force UW outside and take your chances with the Badgers’ long-range accuracy.

More often than not, teams have decided to keep Wisconsin to the outside and force the shot from behind the arc. When that plan backfires, the Badgers beat Northwestern by 32 (12-26 on 3-pointers) and Coppin State by 24 (17-38). When it works, Wisconsin shoots 3-19 on threes against Purdue.

The Badgers’ biggest strengths could be their biggest weaknesses.

Against Ohio State, Jordan Taylor almost single-handedly showed how the three-ball can change the outcome of a game. Wisconsin was down 15 points and made it all up in a matter of minutes. It was one of those stretches where the Badgers looked like they couldn’t miss.

And in a tight game, they had better not.

The Badgers are dead last in Division I in possessions per 40 minutes, averaging 58.4. They don’t get a lot of chances to score in every game, which conversely keeps opponents from getting a lot of chances either. Wisconsin justifies that this season by ranking No. 1 in offensive efficiency, averaging 1.19 points per possession. Typically, UW makes the most out of its few chances.

But when it doesn’t, Wisconsin doesn’t give itself much of a chance. And because a large proportion of those chances are spent on 3-pointers – 35.5 percent of UW’s points come from threes, 22nd in the nation – the Badgers are taking a gamble with every 3 taken. Only two other teams – Boston College and Belmont – that are in ESPN’s latest projected tournament field rely more heavily on 3-pointers for offense.

Of the teams that are likely in contention for No. 1 seeds in the tournament – Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, Pittsburgh and Texas – only Duke has over 30 percent of its points coming from 3-pointers (30.8 percent). In the previous two Final Fours, none of the eight teams relied on 3-pointers for more than 29.9 percent of their total points.

Cornell proved last year you can beat anybody with threes, downing Wisconsin in the second round of the NCAA tournament, going 8-15 from behind the arc in that game. Against Kentucky in its next game, Cornell went just 5-21 in a 17-point loss.

If the Badgers shoot lights out like they sometimes do, they can beat anybody. But the opposite holds true as well. Wisconsin plays like a boom-or-bust team intent on upsets but instead will likely have a No. 3 seed, meaning it could take some surviving just to get the opportunity for an upset.

Instead, the Badgers will eventually fall to a team that relies more heavily on high-percentage shots – a more reliable formula for sustained success in general. Can the Badgers win four or more games in a row with the kind of shooting they rely on? It’s doubtful. Don’t count on any big March run this season.

Sorry to spoil the surprise.

 
Adam is a senior majoring in journalism. Think UW has what it takes to stay hot from 3-point land in the postseason? Email him at [email protected] or Tweet @AdamJSHolt