Unfortunately for the Lebanese people, Lebanon is becoming an increasingly popular site for what was a staple of the Cold War — satellite conflicts. Lebanon now serves as a surrogate battlefield where greater powers do battle without fully engaging in open conflict. Cold War or no Cold War, it seems that when regional powers wish to send a message, right a wrong, or teach a lesson, Lebanon is just the place to do it.
The United States and Israel agree (as they often do) that Iran and Syria are conspiring (as they often do) to rearm Hezbollah. Iran, through Syria, has successfully restocked Hezbollah's once depleted cache of missiles. Israeli, American and Lebanese sources are reporting that Hezbollah possesses somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000 missiles capable of reaching Israeli cities — thousands more than they had July 12, the day Israel began its operation in southern Lebanon.
A year ago, Lebanon seemed far removed from its violent days of civil war and its days as a veritable Syrian protectorate. Following the Syrian army's pullout in 2005, which followed an alleged Syrian assassination of the Lebanese prime minister, Lebanon was beginning to resemble a nascent independent democracy. Today, Lebanon is more reminiscent of the quintessential failed state — Iraq. And like Iraq, Lebanon has outside players to thank for its current state of unrest and tattered democracy.
To Middle Eastern agitators Iran and Syria, Lebanon is leverage. Syria, who once played the role of peacekeeper in Lebanon following its incredibly confusing civil war, is now actively encouraging, arming and financing the violent and divisive Hezbollah faction. Iran, too is equipping, training and financing the political party (or terrorist group, depending on whom you ask).
Both Syria and Iran, like alienated North Korea, are frustrated at sanctions imposed on their regimes by the world's sole remaining military and economic superpower. Syria also has the Golan Heights to consider, which Syria and United Nations Resolution 242 consider to be part of Syria. The Golan Heights, a rather unimpressive chunk of land on the northeastern border of Israel, has been under Israeli control for decades, and Syria is desperate for any sort of leverage it can obtain on the Golan Heights issue when dealing with its more powerful neighbor. Iran, with its much touted Axis of Evil membership and its nuclear ambitions, is scrambling for any sort of political and regional clout it can muster. The notion of an Israeli and/or American invasion also has both nations spooked.
Iran and Syria are hoping to use their influence over Hezbollah to force Israeli and American concessions in the Middle East. Iran wants to be left alone to pursue its nuclear program in order to legitimize itself as a regional power. Syria wants its economy back, as well as the Golan Heights, and it wouldn't mind increasing its influence in Lebanon. Both nations also want a bargaining chip to use should their actions push Western powers too far.
Meanwhile, we, along with our best bud Israel, are trying to make President Bush's dream of a democratized Middle East a reality. Unfortunately for Syria and Iran, democracy is only democracy when said democracy results in countries friendly to American and Israeli interests. Israel wants its northern cities safe from Russian-made Iranian/Syrian-supplied missiles. America wants democracy in and nukes out — or else. Meanwhile, humble neighbor Jordan sits nearby in peace and tranquility.
With so many nations so interested in keeping one another in check, Lebanon has found itself on the receiving end of many an ill-conceived and downright mean-spirited venture.
Most recently, Syria has been implicated in the recent assassination of up-and-coming anti-Syrian politician Pierre Gemayel. And almost two years before that, Syria was suspected of playing a rather large role in the assassination of billionaire Lebanese Prime minister Rafik Hariri. Recently, perhaps in an attempt to encourage the sort of democracy that is underappreciated in Iraq, Israel launched an ill-conceived military campaign against Hezbollah. Unfortunately for Lebanon — and Israel — a lot of Lebanese infrastructure was destroyed. As a result of the Israeli campaign, the anti-Syrian, American-backed Lebanese government is now in danger of being overthrown, and Hezbollah has enough political collateral to make Nancy Pelosi jealous.
Lebanon is, again, being left to clean up a mess on its own soil that is not of its own making. With six of its 24-member government having resigned, two recent audacious and confounding assassinations, and an economy and infrastructure still struggling to recover from a month-long aerial bombardment and two month naval blockade, that may be asking too much. However, it's an action the exhausted nation must be allowed to undertake on its own, without the disastrous intervention of neighbors or an anxious superpower. To quote myself (as I often do) it's getting buck nasty in Lebanon.
Gerald Cox ([email protected]) is a junior majoring in economics.
