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The Badger Herald

Independent Student Newspaper Since 1969

The Badger Herald

Independent Student Newspaper Since 1969

The Badger Herald

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Experts say Cain’s Wisconsin stop will be first of several presidential hopeful visits

With less than a year until the 2012 presidential election, a prominent candidate in a seemingly up-for-grabs Republican primary field made multiple public stops in Wisconsin Monday.

Republican presidential hopeful Herman Cain held a fundraising event Monday at the Milwaukee Athletic Club, according to his website. Cain also held a rally at a Packer game tailgate last night.

Cain’s luncheon fundraiser marks the start of the presidential political season in the state. In the months leading up to the Wisconsin primary on April 3, 2012, numerous campaign stops are likely to be made in Wisconsin by Republican nominee candidates.

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As of now, the Republican front appears wide open, with candidates rising and falling in the polls almost weekly, University of Wisconsin political science professor Donald Downs said. There are a handful of top contenders, he added, but it is still unpredictable who will win the nomination.

“It’s up for grabs; it’s hard to predict,” Downs said. “Right now the Republicans don’t have a unified force, and are supporting a range of candidates.”

The race for the Republican nomination has seen surges in popularity among candidates, with hopefuls entering and exiting the race and the lead changing many times already.

However, UW political science professor Charles Franklin said former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney appears to be the frontrunner in the race.

“The pattern we’ve seen [in candidate popularity] was first Donald Trump, then Michele Bachmann, then Mitt Romney, then Rick Perry, then Cain and now maybe [Newt] Gingrich,” Franklin said. “So far, Romney is the only one who has maintained very stable support at least since June.”

While Romney is considered by many to be the party front-runner, Franklin said he has not earned the confidence of the conservative Republican base.

The recent Republican shift toward greater conservatism, Franklin said, makes Romney appear too moderate. He speculates this is the cause behind the numerous swings in popularity among other candidates.

“We have the odd situation where the party is looking for someone more conservative than their frontrunner but hasn’t found anyone else to settle on,” Franklin said.

Without a solid majority leader yet, Downs said it may still be possible for another candidate to enter and potentially win the nomination.

While the deadline for entry into primaries has passed in some states and is quickly approaching in others, it is possible a more conservative candidate might enter his or her name into the circle, Franklin said.

“If the party can’t coalesce around a candidate, it isn’t inconceivable that a late entry could happen,” Franklin said.

Regardless of who earns the Republican nomination, Downs and Franklin agree the presidential election will likely be extremely close.

Franklin said it is difficult to predict what will happen in the economy and how the campaigns will play out between now and Nov. 6, 2012, but said the election will probably be decided by a margin of only a few percentage points or less.

According to Downs, with a close election likely, Wisconsin will continue to see more fundraising and campaigning events such as Cain’s.

“Once the race is on, they’ll be making a lot of stops here because we’re a swing state. Walker has mobilized the left, which might help the Democrats in 2012, but Obama’s approval is below 50 percent here. It’s really up for grabs,” Downs said.

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