Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has at least a 10-point lead in all Big Ten states, including the battleground state of Indiana, according to a poll released Thursday.
The Big Ten Battleground Poll, directed by University of Wisconsin political science professor Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein, conducted interviews with more than 500 randomly selected registered voters in each of the Midwest between Oct. 19 and Oct. 22.
While other polls have shown most Big Ten states trending toward Obama already, Indiana has generally remained in McCain territory. This recent poll shows Obama winning the rust belt state 51 to 41 over McCain.
“It is a trend on a national and state level,” Franklin said. “Voters are convinced that
Obama is more reliable, even though McCain has more experience.”
In the previous Big Ten Battleground Poll, Obama had only a 1-point lead over McCain.
Franklin said he attributed the shift of support to the nation’s recent financial woes.
“There’s three reasons Obama’s winning,” Franklin said. “Economy, economy and economy.”
Franklin said crisis situations, such as the current economic impasse, translate to voters connecting the incumbent party with McCain.
“Most voters are unsatisfied with President Bush and the Republican Party, and blame Republicans,” Franklin said. “In a substantial matter, McCain has inherited this blame, whether it is actually his fault or not.”
Franklin added McCain’s response to the financial crisis contributed to the Obama campaign.
College Republicans Vice Chair Kristen Wall disagrees and believes McCain is still a strong force in the campaign.
“Obviously, they both have leadership qualities, but it is experience that matters,” Wall said, adding Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden recently said Obama will get a “test of his leadership.”
Be it leadership or experience, voters’ opinions also show Obama currently holds a nine-point lead over McCain in the poll’s nationally representative sample of 1,014 respondents.
Wall said she disagrees with the statistics, however, and said they have little meaning, as polls have a large margin of error.
“You take polls with a grain of salt,” Wall said. “The only poll that counts is the one in November.”
Wall added UW College Republicans are still supporting McCain and believes he will do well as the race for the White House nears its final days.
In addition to Wisconsin and Indiana, states included in the Big Ten Battleground Poll included Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Franklin said no additional polls will be conducted before the election, but hoped to contact those surveyed after the election to study voting trends.