Wisconsin residents prefer Democrats over Republicans to become the next U.S. president, according to a poll released Wednesday by St. Norbert's College and Wisconsin Public Radio.
The telephone survey interviewed 400 adult Wisconsin residents, and 49 percent of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate. Republican candidates received 29 percent, and independents received 9 percent.
Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor, said the poll reflects the poor standing of national Republican leaders like President George W. Bush. He said it follows a national trend related to the president's low approval rating.
Mark Jefferson, executive director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, agreed with Franklin's conclusion and pointed to the November election last year, where Democrats gained a majority in the state Senate and narrowed the majority in the Assembly.
The state also re-elected Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle over former U.S. Rep. Mark Green, the Republican contender.
"The landscape favors the Democrats, but a lot can change in a year," Jefferson said. "Wisconsin is the definition of a purple state — it's a swing state, no question about it."
However, Jefferson said the poll might not accurately reflect the number of independent voters in the state who may be more likely to vote Republican.
After asking respondents which party they would be more likely to vote for, the survey narrowed the question to gauge individual candidate support.
The New York candidates faired better than others, with Democrat U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton and Republican Rudy Guiliani earning the most votes for their respective parties. Clinton took 33 percent, and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., took 30 percent. U.S. Sen. John Edwards, D-NC, took 18 percent.
On the Republican side, Giuliani took 26 percent, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson took 24 percent, and U.S. John McCain, R-Ariz., took 18 percent.
In most national polls, Thompson usually collects 1 to 3 percent of the vote.
According to Franklin, Thompson's strategy of taking the Iowa caucus does not require support on the national level. And Franklin said it is common for some candidates previously polled in single digits to have a strong showing in the primaries.
"One would be foolish to believe this is where it will be in the Wisconsin primary, or especially in the election," Franklin said. "The huge danger [with polls] is to look at it and believe that's it."