While some critics say a website cannot accurately predict a student’s chances of admission to a top college, the founders of ThickEnvelope.com say their site is unique in that it does actually make correct predictions.
ThickEnvelope.com offers an $80 test to calculate a student’s chances of admission to 80 top universities, ranging from Harvard and the University of California-Berkley to the University of Wisconsin. Critics have said the new site, like many others that charge for this service, is a scam to profit from the anxiety of high-school students and their parents.
“First of all, it’s not difficult to convey an admit rate,” Marlyn McGrath Lewis, director of admissions for Harvard College within Harvard University, said. “All you have to do is to get it and post it. But that says nothing about the chances for an individual.”
Lewis added a common myth among applicants is everyone’s chances of getting into a top university are the same, pointing out universities like Harvard use subjective factors in their admissions process.
“We put a lot of emphasis on recommendations and interviews,” she explained. “It’s not hard to find a good candidate in our pool. The question is which one will you take. It can’t be reduced to numbers.”
She went on to say most Harvard applicants are academically qualified, noting that last year, 87 percent of them were admissible and could have handled the university’s workload. Nonetheless, only 10 percent were offered admission.
ThickEnvelope.com founder Grant Ujifusa, who is also the founding editor of the Almanac of American Politics, says his site recognizes the importance of non-academic standards and uses them when making predictions.
“We think we can sort out kids with very high scores, say scores of 750 or above on the SAT. We ask questions like what a guidance counselor might say in a letter of recommendation,” he said. “Then we look for certain combinations and assign points based on that. Teacher recommendations are very important.”
University of Wisconsin Admissions Director Rob Sultzer, however, warns against this and other sites, saying the admissions process has too many variables.
“I couldn’t with any accuracy predict my own son’s chances of being admitted here, even with all the information I have,” Sultzer said. “I don’t know how they, without any information, could make that decision.”
Ujifusa stated there is no way of checking the accuracy of students’ self-response, although the website has some checks in place to prevent wildly off-target results. He said the website looks at what sort of national recognitions an applicant has received, for example.
Ujifusa also said his website differs from other sites in its goal, in that ThickEnvelope.com offers students honest and realistic answers.
“Guidance counselors don’t like some sites because sometimes they tell a student with a 2.6 that they’re going to be able to get into Amherst,” he explained. “We would say, ‘Your daughter has less than a 5 percent chance of being accepted.’ We’re not trying to sell anyone up or make anyone feel better about themselves.”