In the last two weeks Wisconsin has gone from “leaning Obama” to a toss-up state. Although all polls show the Illinois senator at least even with McCain, few have shown him with a lead of more than four points, meaning the race is virtually a tie. [Today Rasmussen Reports has Obama up by two. ](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2008_wisconsin_presidential_election\)

Nevertheless, most continue to assume Obama will win Wisconsin, largely, I believe, because if Obama loses a state as Democrat-friendly as Wisconsin he will almost certainly lose the election.

A couple things to keep in mind though:

— Wisconsin was host to a vigorous voter-registration drive during the primaries, which overwhelmingly benefits Democrats.

— If ever there was an election in which polls that neglect cell phone users are inaccurate, it’s this one. Not only are more people only using cell phones than in 2004, but the most politically significant segment of that group — young people — are actually going to vote in much greater numbers this year than ever before, as the primaries have shown. It’s hard to imagine how a pollster could even factor in the UW campuses with such limited ability to poll cell phones.