If the Sprint Cup regular season finale at Richmond International Raceway is any indication, the final 10 races of the schedule should be among the most exciting and unpredictable we’ve seen in the Chase era. With Jeff Gordon making the Chase by a mere three points, knocking out Kyle Busch in the process, all four Hendrick Motorsports entries will have a chance to win the championship. Gordon’s teammates Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Kasey Kahne all look very strong heading into the chase. 

However, that quartet of drivers will face mighty competition from the other eight drivers who will help comprise the 12-man field. Roush Fenway Racing has two drivers in Greg Biffle, the regular season points leader, and Daytona 500 champion Matt Kenseth.

 Also joining them with two drivers is Michael Waltrip Racing’s Clint Bowyer, the Richmond winner, and Martin Truex, Jr., who came oh-so-close to winning two weeks ago in Atlanta. 

Kevin Harvick, fresh off an in-season crew chief swap, will represent Richard Childress Racing in the Chase for the third consecutive season.

Brad Keselowski makes his second straight Chase appearance in the number 2 Miller Lite Dodge for Penske Racing. Last year’s surprise champion Tony Stewart makes his 8th Chase appearance this year, his fourth with his own team. And last, but certainly not least, is the top seed in this year’s Chase for the Cup, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin, who leads the series this season with four victories.

The last 10 races will feature the same tracks as last season. Chicagoland, New Hampshire, Dover, Talladega, Charlotte, Kansas, Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead will host the remaining races this year in that order. Of the 10, five are 1.5 miles in length, and three (New Hampshire, Dover, Phoenix) are a single mile. 

Martinsville represents the only short track, and Talladega is the only superspeedway. However, Martinsville and Talladega ought not to be discounted, as they have shown to be the biggest wild cards in a pressure-packed dash to the end of the season.

Since the change in how the Chase is seeded in 2007, when an emphasis was placed on entering the Chase with victories, both wins and consistency have become necessary to reach the pinnacle of American motorsport. In the current format, the Top-10 drivers in points following the 26th event of the season qualify for the Chase, as well as the two drivers in the 11th-20th range with the most wins. These 12 drivers are reset to 2000 points, with those who were in the Top-10 receiving three bonus points for each victory they’ve earned this season. The two “wild card” drivers are not afforded any bonus. 

In the past five seasons, only last year’s champion Tony Stewart has begun the Chase seeded worse than 3rd and gone on to win the championship. Also, since ’07, the eventual Chase winner has managed no less than 1 Win, 6 Top-Fives, and 8 Top-Tens in the Chase events. And the worst average finish by a champion in the 10 Chase races was 6.8 (Jimmie Johnson, 2009). With these numbers it becomes clear that to raise the trophy after the 36th race in Homestead, Florida, a driver HAS TO win races, finish up front, and minimize bad finishes. 

As with the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, being in the field gives you a chance to win it all. Two drivers in this year’s Chase field, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart, have tasted the glory of winning the championship in Chase format. Johnson has done is five times(2006-2010), Stewart twice(2005 & 2011). Second seed Johnson and third seed Stewart have to be at the top of the list of favorites to win the Cup this year.
After his agonizing defeat in 2010, Denny Hamlin has put himself in a very similar position to start this year’s stretch run. He is once again the number one seed and has Darian Grubb as his crew chief. Grubb won the championship last season with Tony Stewart.
The #4-seed Brad Keselowski is hotter than anyone going into the playoffs, scoring the most points over the last six races and nine Top-10s in the last 10 races.
These four drivers must be considered the favorites, for the above reasons if not for the fact that they are ahead on points to begin.