It was “March Madness” for the Milwaukee Bucks this week as they traded away Andrew Bogut, their longest tenured player, for a dynamic wing player they’ve been searching for.
The Bucks received guard Monta Ellis, forward Ekpe Udoh and Kwame Brown’s expiring contract in exchange for Andrew Bogut and the maligned Stephen Jackson.
Before analyzing the trade – and Milwaukee’s future as a whole – here’s a breakdown of each player in the trade:
Andrew Bogut
Although many Wisconsinites are content to label Bogut a bust, that simply isn’t the case. It’s true that mediocrity marred Bogut’s tenure with the Bucks – only landing in the playoffs twice in his six years. It’s also true that Bogut missed a significant amount of games for the Bucks – missing over 100 games the last four seasons. However, Bogut was by far the best player on the Bucks during his time here. He’s certainly better than Marvin Williams, the other player the Bucks were targeting with the number one pick in 2005. People are quick to point out the Bucks could have had Deron Williams or Chris Paul in that draft. My rebuttal is simple – Chris Paul and Deron Williams forced their way out of New Orleans and Utah respectively, and it would have happened sooner in Milwaukee. Not to mention the Bucks already had a promising point guard in T.J. Ford.
If anyone is to blame for the Bucks’ lack of success, it is Milwaukee’s management for consistently failing to surround Bogut with talented, unselfish and efficient players (i.e. not the carousel of Michael Redd, Mo Williams, Bobby Simmons, Charlie Villanueva, Richard Jefferson, Corey Maggette and Stephen Jackson). This year the Bucks were 7-5 when Andrew Bogut played and 12-19 when he did not. To argue the Bucks were and are better without a healthy Andrew Bogut is simply not true. However, you can argue the Bucks are now better without Bogut than with a consistently injured Bogut, which is why the trade was made.
It is not fair to dismiss Bogut’s value and talent because of his injuries. Legitimate 7-foot centers are disappearing in the NBA, and just two years ago – before “the injury” (where he slipped from the rim and dislocated his right elbow, broke his hand and sprained his wrist) – Bogut was arguably the best center in the league aside from Dwight Howard. Bogut was averaging 15.9 points, 10.1 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game until his injury in 2010. Last year, while practically playing with one arm, Bogut’s blocks and rebounds increased. Unfortunately, his offense never returned to form. His patented righty hook shot was nonexistent after the reconstruction of his elbow. Bogut admits his elbow would never be 100 percent again and his latest ankle injury may deteriorate his talents even further. The Bucks are no longer willing to risk that reality and wait on Bogut’s health, but the Warriors clearly are.
Just two seasons ago, the Bucks seemed to have a legitimate core – a young, electrifying point guard and a dual threat center in his prime. Bogut’s fall robbed him of his development into a dominant center and robbed the Bucks of their promising future. The Bucks had a clear plan in 2010; it’s hard to see a plan in 2012.
Stephen Jackson
There’s not much to say about Stephen Jackson’s career in Milwaukee. He said a contract extension was mandatory in his introductory press conference, despite the fact his contract ran for two years and nearly $20 million. He’s played in 26 games this season and averaged 10.5 points a game while only shooting 36 percent from the field – ranking 387th in the league. Jackson played poorly on the court and acted questionably off the court. He hosted numerous parties in visiting cities on nights before games, according to widespread flyers on the internet. Jackson slept through a pre-game shoot around in New York, which prompted a suspension from the Bucks. A few days later, he was suspended for verbally abusing a referee and failing to leave the court in a timely manner after an ejection during a game. The Bucks wanted desperately to get him off the team – even if it meant devaluing their return on a trade. Milwaukee got their wish by packaging him in this deal.
(Note: The Warriors traded Jackson a day later to the Spurs for Richard Jefferson and a conditional first round pick.)
Monta Ellis
Monta Ellis is a quick, flashy combo guard who has averaged nearly 20 points per game in his career. The Warriors drafted him out of high school in 2005 with the 40th overall pick in the NBA Draft. He captured the Most Improved Player award in his second season after averaging 16 points and 4 assists a game. In 2008, he shot 53% from the floor and averaged over 20 points per game – prompting a 6 year, $67 million extension. He injured his ankle in a moped crash that offseason and lost some of his explosiveness he displayed earlier in his career. Ellis has regained most of his quickness, but his shooting percentage has topped out at 45% since the moped incident. Nonetheless, he’s still a high volume scorer – averaging 24.1 points per game last year and 25.5 points per game in 2010.
Ellis will be playing shooting guard next to Brandon Jennings, which makes him a matchup nightmare on offense. However, he’s undersized at that position – only 6’3 – so he’s known to struggle on defense. The Bucks have been looking for an exciting, dynamic scoring wing for the last few years, and Ellis now fills that void. Ellis’ acquisition means Milwaukee will feature a run and gun style of offense, but how that meshes with Scott Skiles’s defensive philosophy remains to be seen.
Ekpe Udoh
Udoh was the 6th pick in the 2010 NBA draft by Golden State. He struggled in his first season, only averaging 4 points and 3 rebounds per game. His play has improved this year, and the Warriors recently inserted him into the starting lineup after several impressive performances. At 6’10, his natural position is power forward, but he will be forced to play the center position (also see Drew Gooden and Larry Sanders) for the undersized Bucks. Udoh’s rebounding rates are alarmingly low, but his defense and shot blocking abilities make up for that deficiency. Milwaukee is hoping Udoh will be able to clog the lane and develop a legitimate post game, which would lessen the impact of losing Bogut.
Kwame Brown
The former number one overall pick was included in the deal for salary relief. He’s likely out for the year because of surgery on a chest muscle, but his expiring contract will save the Bucks $7 million in the offseason. This is important because that money can go towards retaining Ersan Ilyasova or extending Brandon Jennings.
Conclusion
It’s too early to speculate on this deal without watching how Ellis and Udoh perform with the Bucks. Ellis and Brandon Jennings could be the most exciting, dynamic backcourts in the NBA. Conversely, they could be the most undersized and inefficient backcourt – they’ve combined to miss 827 shots this season, the most for any pair of teammates in the NBA.
One thing is clearer than ever: Milwaukee’s management is not willing to blow up its team and go for a high draft pick. Historically speaking, this development should not come as a surprise. This trade is similar, in some ways, to the Ray Allen trade in 2003. The Bucks traded Ray Allen, Ronald Murray, Kevin Ollie and a conditional first round pick to Seattle for Gary Payton and Desmond Mason. Gary Payton quickly expressed his displeasure with Milwaukee and left the Bucks in the offseason, while Desmond Mason played several effective years with the Bucks as a role player. Ray Allen, however, would go to the All-Star game seven more times and win an NBA championship with the Celtics in 2008. Although the Ray Allen trade failed for the Bucks – sending them into the cycle of mediocrity – it was the classic “win now while we rebuild” trade Bucks fans have become accustomed to seeing. An older Gary Payton was supposed to help them remain a playoff contender and Desmond Mason had some potential. The Andrew Bogut trade follows the pattern of “winning now while rebuilding.” Monta Ellis and Ekpe Udoh will help the Bucks this year in their playoff push for the 8th seed, while Brown’s expiring contract – and dumping the contracts of Bogut and Jackson – will give the Bucks plenty of flexibility in the future. The Bucks are also getting younger in this trade, which is another justification they can use in their claim of building for the future. The reasoning behind the Bogut and Allen trades are similar, but Milwaukee is hoping the result will be vastly different.
The Winner of the Deal
There isn’t a clear winner of this deal. I’d argue Andrew Bogut is the best all-around player in the trade. There’s a reason the Warriors were willing to give up their best scorers and best defender to get an injured Bogut. If, and that’s a huge “if,” Bogut can return to decent health and regain the form we saw two years ago, the Warriors come out on top in this deal. A quality center is substantially more difficult to find than a high volume scorer is.
The real wildcard in this deal is the Bucks’ interior defense. The Bucks have a chance to be a potent team in the Eastern Conference if Udoh, Larry Sanders and Luc Mbah a Moute are able to protect the paint. However, if other teams take advantage of Milwaukee’s porous interior defense, the scoring prowess of the new-look Bucks will be largely irrelevant.