After a thrilling 38-35 win against the New York Giants the undefeated Packers (12-0) return to Green Bay to take on the Oakland Raiders (7-5) Sunday afternoon. Last week’s game turned out to be the toughest task yet for the Packers as it took a last-minute drive by Aaron Rodgers to set-up the game-winning field goal as time expired. In fact, the matchup was so thrilling that it received the highest rating for a nationally televised regular season game since 2007 (Patriots vs. Steelers). Not surprisingly, it turned out to be a classic quarterback duel between Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning as they faced two porous secondaries. Manning, who completed 23/40 passes for 347 yards and three touchdowns, was barely outpaced by Rodgers’ four touchdowns and 369 yards passing. Although both quarterbacks threw one interception, Manning’s ‘pick 6′ to Clay Matthews was a devastating blow that New York could not overcome. While Green Bay’s passing offense continued its dominance, the run game and defense were disappointings once again. Nonetheless, in what is becoming a recurring theme, the play of Aaron Rodgers and his receivers was enough to ensure the Packers their 18th victory in their last 18 games (including playoffs and the Super Bowl).
While the Packers sealed the NFC North Championship with a win last Sunday, conversely, the Raiders’ playoff chances took a major blow with a humiliating defeat (34-14) to the Miami Dolphins. With the sudden resurgence of the Denver Tebows, the Raiders now find themselves in a tie atop the AFC West (they would currently lose the tiebreaker to Denver, too) with four games to play. This week, the Raiders take on the undefeated Packers while the Broncos face the Cutler-less Chicago Bears. The odds are already against the Raiders to make the playoffs, and a loss this week would further decrease the chances of a playoff bid for the Raiders (which would be their first since 2002). Clearly, this is a consequential game for the Raiders and you can bet head coach Hue Jackson will have Oakland geared up to play their best football on Sunday.
Injuries
The one thing that has held back the Oakland Raiders more than anything this year is injuries. It appears likely that the Raiders will be without their star running back Darren McFadden (in 5 games: 614 yards, 4 TDs) and two starting wide receivers, Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore. Additionally, the Raiders lost starting quarterback Jason Campbell to a collarbone injury which prompted the Carson Palmer trade. Throughout the season they have also sustained numerous injuries to their offensive line, secondary, and defensive line. Although injuries seem to be a legitimate excuse for the recent struggles of the Raiders, those complaints will largely fall on deaf ears of the Packers and their fans – who know all too well about frequent injuries. In fact, this week, the Packers may be without linebackers A.J. Hawk and Desmond Bishop, guard Josh Sitton, and running back James Starks. While the Packers can seemingly plug in anyone (Dietrich-Smith, D.J. Smith, Francois, Saine, etc.) and still succeed, most NFL teams do not have that luxury. The reality of the situation is that the Raiders do not possess the talent or overall depth to match that of the Packers, and it could be very visible on Sunday.
Carson Palmer
As mentioned before, the Raiders were forced to scramble for a quarterback after Jason Campbell hurt his throwing shoulder in week 6. Their solution was trading for the much maligned Carson Palmer who successfully forced the Bengals into trading him. Prior to the season, Palmer threatened to retire unless the Bengals either traded him or released him. Neither the Bengals nor Palmer budged (the Bengals refused to appease Palmer and drafted Andy Dalton) and the 31-year-old former pro-bowl selection retired from football. After the death of long-time Raiders’ owner Al Davis and a promising 4-2 start, the front office of Oakland decided they needed to find an adequate replacement for Campbell and salvage the season at all costs. They were able to convince the Bengals to trade Palmer after offering future first and second (which becomes a first if Oakland wins a playoff game this year) draft picks. Although it came at an extremely steep price, Carson Palmer gave the Raiders a legitimate quarterback with plenty of experience. The results thus far have been mixed in his first six games (55.9 completion %, 8 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 77.5) but it’s reasonable to assume he will improve as he gets more comfortable with the new offense. With Oakland’s respectable running attack (Michael Bush replaced McFadden and has run 686 yards and 6 TDs) and Green Bay’s porous secondary, Carson Palmer will have an opportunity to post impressive numbers this week. In his career, Palmer has played the Packers twice and has come out victorious both times (as recently as 2009) posting 6 touchdowns, 422 yards, a 64.9 completion % and a quarterback rating of over 100. Obviously, things have changed drastically for both Palmer and the Packers and his challenge this week will be whether he can put up more points than Aaron Rodgers; a feat no opposing quarterback has accomplished this year.
Penalties
The Raiders are notorious for their rough and intimidating (often illegal) style of play. As a result, they are generally among the league leaders in penalties drawn every year, and this year is no aberration. In fact, the Raiders are currently on pace to set the record for the amount of penalties drawn in NFL history. Oakland has committed 119 penalties for 1,027 yards this season and is on a steady pace (159 penalties for 1,369 yards) to eclipse the 1998 Chiefs’ elusive record of 158 penalties for 1,304 yards. To make matters worse, defensive tackle Richard Seymour got ejected last week for the second consecutive year for punching an opposing player and linebacker Rolando McClain was recently accused of threatening a man with a loaded gun. Lack of discipline has been a theme for the Raiders since their Super Bowl run in 2002 and unless things change in a hurry it may cost them an AFC West title. When considering the built up frustration from last week’s blowout in Miami, Seymour’s ejection, and McClain’s incident as well as the increasing pressure created by Denver’s resurgence, the Raiders will undoubtedly be fired up and filled with emotions on Sunday. Whether they filter that energy in a positive or negative manner may be the difference between a close game and a blowout at Lambeau. Whatever the case, it will make for a very entertaining matchup on Sunday.
Although it is not necessarily a ‘must-win’ for the Raiders on Sunday, another loss would severely diminish their playoff aspirations. The Packers still have home-field advantage (throughout the entire playoffs) and a perfect record to play for, but clearly their stakes are much lower. Oakland will have to play a nearly flawless game to have a chance to defeat the Packers at Lambeau, yet they possess the talent to pull off the upset. The things that have held back the Raiders all season – injuries, Carson Palmer’s poor play, and penalties – will greatly factor into the final outcome of the game. If the Raiders can play tough and disciplined football, the Packers could face the realities of defeat for the first time in nearly a full calendar year. After all, as Al Davis would exclaim, the Raiders only have one simple goal on Sunday: to ‘Just Win, Baby’ (surprisingly, I think they will).