http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GKKbkWumS4
The Packers (4-0) remain one of the last two undefeated teams after a 49-23 rout against the Broncos last week. The only other NFL team devoid of a blemish on their record is the Detroit Lions. Let that soak in a minute, the Lions have a perfect record and it’s not before week one of the regular season (perhaps we should all fear for 2012). Regardless, Green Bay won’t face off with Detroit until week 12 and they will instead harness their focus for the Atlanta Falcons (2-2). It’s a rematch of last year’s divisional playoff game in which the Packers rolled the Falcons 48-21 at the Georgia Dome behind Aaron Rodgers’ near perfect performance (86% completion percentage, 366 yards, and 4 touchdowns). In that game Matt Ryan, or “Matty Ice”, struggled while only throwing for 186 yards and 2 interceptions. If you recall going into last year’s playoffs, “Matty Ice” was being depicted as a clutch leader (keep in mind, he’s yet to win a playoff contest) while Aaron Rodgers, according to the media, was attempting to “get the monkey off his back” (supposedly due to one playoff loss where he threw for 423 yards and 4 touchdowns). Oh, how quickly things can change.
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off of a 30-28 victory over Tavaris Jackson’s Seattle Seahawks (which won’t inspire much confidence in and of itself). Prior to that game they were routed by the Bears (12-30), conquered Michael Vick’s Eagles/Vince Young’s “dream team” (35-31), and lost a heartbreaker to the Buccaneers (13-16). Despite their inconsistencies, the Falcons have 33 regular season wins in the last three years and still pose a formidable threat to the Packers’ perfect record. Here are three components of the game to pay special attention to when the Packers head down to Georgia.
Regulating “The Burner”
Falcon’s running back Michael “The Burner” Turner has been a model of consistency since he arrived in Atlanta in 2008. In the last three seasons he’s eclipsed 1300 yards rushing twice (highlighted by 1699 yards in 2008) and rushed for 10+ touchdowns each year. In three games against the Packers Turner has ran for 243 yards (4.5 ypc average) and two scores. Turner is currently on pace to surpass 1200 yards on the ground this season and has shown little sign of slowing down at age 29 (he’s got a few more months until he hits 30, a notorious age of decline for running backs…Evidence: LT, Shaun Alexander Priest Holmes, Ahman Green). Regardless, he’s still a viable threat now and one that could pose problems for Green Bay’s defense. The Packers rank second in the NFL in rushing yards given up per game (71.0), but Michael Turner will be an intriguing test to gauge the actual quality of Green Bay’s run defense.
Historic(ally Bad) Secondary
While the Packers’ run defense has been surprisingly dominant, their pass defense has been outright atrocious. I’ve emphasized the secondary’s struggle every week and it continuous to be the constant Achilles’ heel (albeit one that hasn’t resulted in a loss) of the Packers. How bad have the Packers defended the pass this year? There’s no way to sugarcoat it, they’ve been historically bad and that’s not even an exaggeration. The Packers are currently on pace to allow an astounding 5,372 yards through the air this season which would easily assure them an NFL record. To put that number in context, the present record holders are the 1995 Atlanta Falcons (coincidently enough) with 4,541 passing yards allowed. The only redeeming factor for the secondary has been their takeaways, as they’ve managed to amass eight interceptions in four games. Things won’t get considerably easier for the secondary this weekend as Matt Ryan has an abundance of receiving weapons at his disposal. Top receiving threats Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzales have combined for 71 catches and 873 yards in their young 2011 campaign. Furthermore, Ryan has a 2-0 record against the Packers in his regular season career with a 74.1% completion percentage, 391 yards, and three touchdowns. I’d expect improved performances by Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams this week, but Charlie Peprah (who’s struggled mightily in keeping up with deep receivers) and Sam Shields (who got benched for his lackadaisical “attempts” at tackling) will need to increase their levels of play dramatically in order to fully turn the secondary around.
John Abraham
It appears that for the second consecutive week starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga will miss the game with his sprained and bruised knee. Add into the mix that the Packers will be facing Pro Bowl defensive end John Abraham (who boasts 104.5 career sacks), and protecting Aaron Rodgers will undoubtedly be a focal point in this game. It’s a safe bet that Abraham will predominantly lineup across from Bulaga’s replacement Marshall Newhouse. After Newhouse’s impressive debut, the right tackle struggled mightily against the Broncos en route to giving up a pair of sacks (party like it’s 2009!) to rookie linebacker Von Miller. What elevates concern even higher is the health of Chad Clifton who briefly came out of last week’s game in the fourth quarter after being kicked in the shin. If the tenured veteran were to miss significant time at any point this season, it would be devastating blow to Green Bay’s repeat chances. The Falcons come into this week with only five sacks all season (Abraham has two), but don’t be surprised to see that number increase by a digit or two after Abraham’s through.
After being humiliated at home against the Packers in the playoffs last year, the Falcons will be amped up to send a resounding message this week. With Matt Ryan and Michael Turner leading the charge, Atlanta has as good of a chance of any NFL team to beat the Packers in the Georgia Dome. Green Bay’s reeling secondary and hampered offensive line will be the two main targets for the Falcons as they seek to be the first team to upset the Packers this season. But then again, there’s a reason why the Packers have won ten straight games.