If you find yourself being nostalgic about Green Bay’s Super Bowl run last year, perhaps this week’s game will satisfy your football needs. The Packers (2-0) are set to face off against their divisional rival, the Chicago Bears (1-1), in a NFC Championship Game rematch at Soldier Field. Last week, the Packers defeated the Carolina Panthers 30-23 in a sloppy and uninspiring affair. Nonetheless, the Packers have won consecutive games to start the year and eight in a row (including playoffs) dating back to last season. Neither team was able to establish a consistent run game, but that did little to deter the combined 53 points that were scored. The secondary remains a severe concern for Green Bay as rookie Cam Newton threw for 432 yards and a score. Aaron Rodgers was on target for much of the game and countered with over 300 yards passing and two touchdowns.
The Chicago Bears travelled to the Big Easy last week and marched out with a discouraging blowout (30-13) at the hands of the Saints. Drew Brees remained on fire and torched Chicago’s defense with an efficient 270 yards and three scores through the air. The Bears were unable to gain any momentum on offense or defense and they will look to bounce back in a significant way against Green Bay. In 2010, the two rivals matched up closely as they split their two regular season games. Ultimately, the Packers had the last laugh with a trip to the Super Bowl and a 21-14 victory in the NFC Championship Game at Soldier Field. All three games between Green Bay and Chicago last year were decided by seven points or less, so it’s reasonable to expect an exhilarating nail-biter this week. With that said, here’s a glance at four key components of the game to watch during Sunday’s intriguing contest.
Replacing Collins:
The secondary of the Packers has become a primary concern, and for good reason. Green Bay has allowed over 400 passing yards in both contests this year. To make matters significantly worse, they lost three-time Pro Bowl selection Nick Collins for the season. The safety injured his neck in the win over Carolina and it remains unclear how it may affect him in the future. Neck and spinal injuries are extremely dangerous and in certain circumstances they can be career-threatening (Former Packers’ receiver Terrence Murphy was forced into retirement at age 24 due to a spinal injury in 2006). Losing Nick Collins is a gigantic blow to an already reeling secondary, as he is one of the key playmakers and leaders on defense. Charlie Peprah, who performed admirably as a starter last year, will presume the safety role opposite of Morgan Burnett. Although Peprah is a smart and capable replacement, he still has some physical limitations that set him apart from Collins. In addition, the Packers lack quality depth behind their two new starters. The only other safety besides Peprah and Burnett on the active roster is M.D. Jennings, an undrafted rookie from Arkansas State. As a result, the health and performance of Green Bay’s safeties will be an important theme to monitor on Sunday and in the following weeks.
Protecting Culter:
Protecting the starting quarterback is a main priority for NFL teams, and it is something that the Chicago Bears have consistently failed to accomplish in the last two years. They have neglected to protect Jay Cutler all of last season, in the playoffs (in which he got injured), and to begin this season. Last year Cutler led all quarterbacks, by a large margin, with 52 sacks taken in fifteen games (Packer fans may remember Aaron Rodgers took a league leading 50 sacks in 2009…Allen Barbre anyone?). It appears Chicago’s offensive line hasn’t improved much this year either, as Cutler has been sacked 11 times in two games. He may be well-acquainted with the ground again this week as the Bears’ line woes are certain to continue in the near future. Rookie starting right tackle Gabe Carimi (On Wisconsin) is going to miss significant time with a dislocated right knee, so Chicago will continue to play musical chairs in the trenches. Frank Omiyale, a frequent victim of Clay Matthews’ pass rush last year, will start at right tackle while it remains to be seen whether injured guard Lance Louis resumes his starting duties. Whether you want to blame the personnel, injuries, Mike Martz (offensive coordinator), or Jay Cutler’s pocket awareness, the same principle still applies. The Bears will not succeed if Jay Cutler’s back is constantly on the ground and he may not be able to physically endure this much punishment in the future.
Special Teams:
Two words: Devin Hester. And now, for once, two more: Randall Cobb. It’s not often that special teams garners a lot of attention, but whenever Devin Hester is playing it always does. In his career, Hester has returned 14 kicks and punts for touchdowns (NFL record). However, Hester may not be the only one earning attention on special teams this week. Perhaps for the first time since Desmond Howard, the Packers possess a legitimate return specialist who has already shown flashes of quickness and athleticism. Cobb received national hype when he hit paydirt on a record-tying 108 yard return in week one against the Saints. Although Cobb and Hester may not make much of an impact on kick returns (hello, touchbacks), expect extra focus to be exerted towards the pair on punts. As a result, all eyes will be squarely on Green Bay’s punter Tim Masthay and Chicago’s punter Adam Podlesh. It would probably be in their best interest to utilize the diagonal punt frequently and kick it out of bounds, however it seems to be a dying and difficult art (For evidence, feel free to YouTube Matt Dodge punts to DeSean Jackson). In what is expected to be a barn burner of a game, it may come down to one special teams miscue that determines the final score.
Turnovers:
Turnovers; it’s what makes Jay Cutler most famous (well, besides people unfairly questioning his toughness). When people aren’t questioning his attitude and toughness, they often question his decision making on the field. To Cutler’s defense, he doesn’t have many notable weapons, is constantly getting smacked, and Mike Martz has him throwing the ball 1,943 times a game (slight exaggeration). Jay Cutler will put up respectable numbers against the Green Bay secondary, and he could very well continue the trend of throwing for over 400+ yards. Nevertheless, he is routinely prone to throwing interceptions early and often. As we start to make Brett Favre comparisons, here are his career statistics against the Packers: 5 games started, 1139 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, 9 interceptions. As the numbers show, ball security has clearly been an issue for Cutler against the Packers. For Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers has had his share of difficulties holding onto the ball against the Bears having thrown 4 interceptions in 6 games. If Cutler and Rodgers want to put their team in a position to win, they will have to limit their giveaways. Whichever team turns the ball over less generally wins in the NFL, and I would expect that to holdup in this matchup as well.
As the first divisional matchup for the Bears and Packers in 2011, it should be an extremely intense sequel to the NFC Championship Game last year. The Packers and the Bears matchup pretty equally across the board so the game will likely come down to one key play. Don’t be surprised if that decisive play is a sack, interception, or thrilling punt return.