I’ve been off the blog grind for about a month, and it’s time for a comeback. I’m going to provide some closing shots, opinions on recent coaching hires and of course, preview the conference championship games. Lets jump into it.
- Although their run was brief, I’m glad the Seahawks won a postseason game, to put to rest the thought of re-seeding the playoffs.
- I’m jealous of Packers fans. Aaron Rodgers is the truth. The guy has a cannon, makes great decisions, throws well on the run and is an escape artist in the pocket.
? - Take away Rodgers’ smile, and the “makes great decisions” attribute, and you’ve got yourself a Jay Cutler. Sunday is going to be awesome.
- Teams need to start targeting return men in the draft. It’s a ridiculously underrated part of football.
- Josh McDaniels is a) a horrible head coach but b) a fantastic offensive mind and developer of quarterbacks. The Rams will be exciting next season.
- Rob Ryan as the new Cowboys’ defensive coordinator is another great fit in my eyes. That defense needs a big personality to bring everything together, and Ryan should do just that.
- Andrew Luck made a decision that said either “I have no concept of the term ‘potential career ending injury'” or “Screw the Panthers.” I’m going with the latter.
- Keeping with the quarterback draft class, Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert seems to be the best remaining prospect according to the experts–though I haven’t seen him play much. Jake Locker is interesting, also worth a first round pick. Ryan Mallett isn’t. He looks like the second coming of Chad Henne, and that’s not a compliment. I’m also convinced that if the Raiders had their first round pick, there’s a 100 percent chance Al Davis takes Cam Newton.
- Bart Scott is an angry man!
- The Patriots got exposed by a better team in Foxborough, plain and simple. The fact of the matter is New England wasn’t a very talented team. Bill Belichick was able to catch the league off guard for much of the season with a game plan based almost entirely on creating mismatches. However, the Jets (and Browns) understood that when you don’t show Tom Brady any looks pre-snap he isn’t able to create those mismatches. And when an offense is shrunk down to ten yards, and is entirely based on screen plays, dump offs, and swing passes, a good defense is going to shut it down. New England’s three big needs are a pass rusher, running back and a quality receiver that can stretch the field.
And then there were four. As for these final four teams, I was high on three of them for most of the year (Jets, Steelers, and Packers), while pretty tough on the Bears (with good reason). There are some strong similarities between the teams. All have quarterbacks aged 28 or younger, and they are arguably the four best defenses in the league. The Packers and Bears are playing for the third time this season, the Jets and Steelers met in Week 15. I’ll provide a preview of each game, and if you’re planning on making financial decisions regarding their outcomes, I hope I can help out with that.
Packers at Bears (+3.5)
I’m not buying the Bears being 3.5 point dogs at home, and here are a few reasons why:
Rodgers: After watching Aaron Rodgers annihilate an utterly overrated Atlanta team on Saturday, everyone is jumping all over the Packers in this game. Don’t. The NFL is about matchups, and the Bears matchup against Green Bay. They play a Tampa 2 defense, dropping two safeties, eliminating the big play threat that Rodgers and the Green Bay offense is dependent on. You can then count on the Bears shutting down the Packers running game, so now you are looking at a relatively short field that Rodgers will have to work with. Without a reliable tight end, he’s is going to have trouble. This will not be a high scoring game.
The X-Factor: It’s Devin Hester. In a game that should be a defensive battle, field position is key, and a return touchdown is a game changer. The Packers are very susceptible to big returns, they let up a touchdown to Eric Weems this past weekend, and Hester has already burned them once this season.
Week 17: It’s concerning that the Packers barely won a game that meant nothing to Chicago. It’s my understanding that the Bears didn’t scheme in the least, and their personnel was still almost able to pull off a win.
My Pick: Chicago. If Cutler can protect the ball, the Bears will improbably be in the Super Bowl.
Jets at Steelers (-3.5)
Undoubtedly the two best teams in the AFC, this should be a highly physical game. I have a few questions going in:
Is Troy Polamalu healthy? He didn’t play in the Week 15 matchup, and is a game changer, but is he at 100 percent? It didn’t look like it against the Ravens. In fact, he was a liability, missing two key tackles, including one on a Ray Rice touchdown.
Who will Revis be covering? Mike Wallace is Pittsburgh’s primary threat, and is emerging as a top receiver in the NFL. Generally Darrelle Revis takes out number one receivers, but with a speed guy like Wallace, I wouldn’t be surprised if Antonio Cromartie is on him.
Can the Jets tackle Big Ben? The Steelers have a decimated offensive line, and getting to Roethlisberger isn’t difficult. What’s difficult is getting him on the ground. When Big Ben is able to break tackles and extend the play, coverage breaks down and big plays happen.
Will Sanchez Protect the ball? That’s the real question. Who knows.
My Pick: Jets win a close one, and get a second chance at Jay Cutler and the Bears.