Through three weeks I think I’ve got a pretty good grasp on the league and I’m going to rank the teams as I see fit. I’ve divided the league into six tiers, and because I’m a film nerd, I’m naming each tier after a director, from the great, to the mediocre, to the ugly. Enjoy.
The Martin Scorsese Tier: The best of the best, every week they’ll have a good chance to win. They’ll contend for division titles and ultimately make runs at the Super Bowl.
1. Steelers (3-0) Pittsburgh is the top team in my eyes. Their defense has been so dominant that they’ve gotten two of the three quarterbacks they’ve faced benched (Vince Young and Josh Freeman). Their competition hasn’t been soft by any means, as Atlanta just knocked off the Saints, the Titans are contenders, and the Buccaneers, while not a powerhouse, are an up-and- coming young team who started the year off 2-0. They have an elite offense, with Rashard Mendenhall showing signs of becoming their next Willie Parker, and Mike Wallace is an elite downfield threat. A 13-3 record could be in their horizon.
2. Saints (2-1) I think this team is suffering from the Super Bowl hangover. They’ve yet to get back to their 2009 form offensively, yet they are a missed field goal away from being 3-0. Still, they need to up the tempo. Their defense is reliant on a strong offense. Last season they produced 31.9 points per game. Big leads allowed the defense to take risks, resulting in eight defensive touchdowns. This year they’re only averaging 21 points per game. Their opponents are moving the ball with ease on the ground, resulting in a 30th ranked rush defense. I think they’ll be fine, since Week 3’s loss will not sit will with Drew Brees and he’ll come out firing this week.
3. Packers (2-1) Rough loss on Monday night against the Bears, but nine times out of 10 the Packers win that game. Like the Jets in Week 1, the Packers were the better team that beat themselves. Rodgers was great, and the defense played pretty well, but they were just very undisciplined and committed too many penalties (not to mention that wild James Jones fumble in the final three minutes. How did that not bounce out of bounds?). They should have an easy time moving on. This team’s primary weakness is a sub-par running game. I thought they were weak with Ryan Grant, and now that he’s out for the year they need a running back more than ever. They should trade for Marshawn Lynch. He’s a powerful runner who would fit perfectly into their system and is on a team that would most likely jump at a third-round pick to get rid of him.
4. Colts (2-1) There’s not a whole lot to say about the Colts. The team, as it has been for the past few years, is Peyton Manning. The defense is lacking, with the exception of a good pass rusher in Dwight Freeney, but the offense will score enough points to carry them. Winning the division won’t be easy, as both the Titans and Texans are teams that can slow the Colts offense and do damage on the ground, but you can’t bet against Manning.
5. Jets (2-1) If beating the Patriots didn’t convince you the Jets are a contender, then going down to Miami and beating the Dolphins Sunday night should have been. Sanchez is looking more and more like an NFL quarterback, and he is only going to improve once Santonio Holmes comes back in Week 5. They’ll then be able to put Holmes and Braylon Edwards out there, likely leaving a linebacker on Dustin Keller. It’s going to be a tough team to matchup against. The defense has been surprisingly porous, but I blame that on injuries. Playing without their top cornerback (Darrell Revis), pass rusher (Calvin Pace), and defensive tackle (Kris Jenkins), the lack of production is somewhat understandable. Once they get healthy (with the exemption of Jenkins, who is done for the season), they’ll be back to dominant form.
6. Falcons (2-1) This is the only team thus far that was able to compete with the Steelers, and they just beat the Saints in New Orleans. What would help this team is a change of pace running back. They have two bruisers in Michael Turner and Jason Snelling who wear down the defenses throughout the game, but if they had a quick third down back like Darren Sproles, Leon Washington, or even Bernard Scott, they’d be able to capitalize (essentially what James White does for the Wisconsin offense). I’d also like to see them find another receiver, but right now Roddy White doesn’t seem to have any issues beating double coverage.
7. Ravens (2-1) The offense was clicking last week after a rough Week 2, and Flacco and Boldin connected for three touchdowns. Ray Rice has yet to get going, and is currently dealing with a “severe knee contusion,” but if the passing game continues to develop then he will see defenses begin to shift their focus. The Ravens’ secondary is somewhat concerning, and they are susceptible to being passed on, so it will be interesting to see how they handle Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger in the coming weeks.
8. Cowboys (1-2) You see just how good a team is when they are backed into a corner, and that’s what the Cowboys’ situation was on Sunday. Sitting at 0-2 they were in a must win game and stepped up to the challenge. This is an elite team; they just need to get it together. On defense, beware of DeMarcus Ware.
The Christopher Nolan Tier: These teams appear to be solid, but at a close glance they leave you with a ton of questions. Nonetheless, it wouldn’t surprise me if any of them win their division.
9. Texans (2-1) They beat the Colts, but I don’t think they’re a better team than Indianapolis. They have an awful secondary, ranking dead last in pass defense. Is the offense going to be able to keep up if Andre Johnson’s ankle injury sidelines him for a couple games?
10. Titans (2-1) A playoff team in most divisions, the Titans have to deal with the Texans and Colts. Chris Johnson is a beast and Vince Young always finds ways to win. Still, they don’t have an offense with the capability to overcome an early deficit.
11. Dolphins (2-1) Good defense, more dynamic offense with the addition of Brandon Marshall. My advice? Stop running the Wildcat. Teams know how to defend it and the fans hate seeing it. At least quarterback Chad Henne is realizing that Marshall doesn’t need to be open to make a play.
12. Chiefs (3-0) I love what I saw out of the offense on Sunday, as the trick play caught the 49ers completely off guard, and they got the ball into Dexter McCluster’s hands. This team could definitely win the AFC West.
13. Chargers (1-2) Without poor special teams the Chargers would’ve beaten the Seahawks. Phillip Rivers is one of the top quarterbacks in the league, and it doesn’t really matter who he’s throwing to, though he does appear to be missing Vincent Jackson.
14. Eagles (2-1) I want to see Vick beat a legitimate team, but right now he’s looking like the early frontrunner for MVP.
15. Redskins (1-2) McNabb has made this team exciting, and I love their defense, but they just got beat by the Rams. The Redskins really need a running back.
16. Bears (3-0) These are rankings, not standings. I don’t think the Bears are actually that good.
The M. Night Shyamalan Tier: These teams were good a few years ago, and we still expect a lot, but they don’t seem to have the magic any more.
17. Patriots (2-1) Great offense, terrible defense. Playoff teams don’t let the Bills score 30 points. Who is the leader of this defense?
18. Giants (1-2) David Diehl has been embarrassed by defensive ends this year. One spin move guarantees a free shot at Eli Manning. This offense has a ton of potential through the air, so Coughlin needs to abandon the running game.
The Woody Allen Tier: These teams are still hanging around. Give ’em a few more weeks.
19. Vikings (1-2) I can’t see this team winning more than 7 games. They should just give the rock to Adrian Peterson every play, since that’s where most of their success has come. Brett Favre is on pace for 32 interceptions.
20. Bengals (2-1) If Carson Palmer is not the worst quarterback in the league; he’s got to be in the top five based on his early season form.
21. Seahawks (2-1) I like their linebackers, and they have some nice pieces on offense (Justin Forsett, Golden Tate and John Carlson), but it’s time for this team to start looking for their next franchise quarterback.
22. 49ers (0-3) This team is crumbling by the minute. Firing your offensive coordinator mid-season is never a good sign. The dynamics of the offense are conflicting: Frank Gore is a power back but Alex Smith needs to operate out of the shotgun–probably something that should have been relevant on draft day.
23. Buccaneers (2-1) I’m excited about this offense’s future. They have added two good receivers and LeGarrette Blount is moving up the depth chart at running back. The defense will miss Tanard Jackson, who is suspended for the remainder of the season.
24. Cardinals (2-1) This team needs a quarterback, and Derek Anderson isn’t the one. There are a lot of weapons but nobody to get them the ball.
25. Broncos (1-2) Their game against the Colts was a lot closer than the final score showed, and they were playing without their starting running back Knowshon Moreno. They are clearly missing their top pass rusher Elvis Dumerville who is out for the year, but offensively this is a team that can produce a lot of yards once they find their red-zone threat. Spoiler alert: it’s Demaryius Thomas.
The Kevin Smith Tier: These teams are pretty awful, but they are at least good for a good chuckle and the occasional upset.
26. Rams (1-2) Congratulations to the Rams for their highest ranking in about five years. Sam Bradford could be the next Peyton Manning, but they have too many questions elsewhere.
27. Lions (0-3) I didn’t expect Ndamukong Suh to be so dominant so early, but he’s already on his way to becoming one of the top linemen in the game. The injury bug is hitting this offense with Matthew Stafford, Javhid Best and Nate Burleson out, but they are still moving the ball well. Stafford will be back soon, and they should improve dramatically with him.
28. Raiders (1-2) Still scratching my head on the Jason Campbell benching, but hey, this Oakland crowd loves Bruce Gradkowski. At least Darren McFadden isn’t a total bust.
The Jason Friedberg and Aaron Seltzer Tier: (Disaster Movie, Date Movie, Epic Movie, Meet the Spartans) These teams are absolutely hopeless. They will be lucky to win four games.
29. Browns (0-3) When your best player is your kick returner, there’s something seriously wrong.
30. Jaguars (1-2) I think David Garrard and Brett Favre have some kind of secret interception throwing contest going on. Unfortunately for Garrard, Favre is immune from being benched. Garrard doesn’t have that luxury.
31. Panthers (0-3) Jimmy Clausen looked absolutely lost against the Bengals on Sunday, but it was his first career start and he doesn’t have a ton of weapons to throw to. John Fox will use his running backs heavily, but they have yet to get anything going so far this season.
32. Bills (0-3) Well, their quarterback went to Harvard. Awesome!