Cinderella stories during the first weekend of March Madness always give us headlines, and 2012 was no exception. Entering this NCAA Tournament, four 15-seeds were able to pull off a first-round upset, only 3.7% of the time since the NCAA switched to 64 teams. Last Friday, Norfolk State and Lehigh did the unthinkable by adding two more colossal upsets to that list. The two tiny schools enjoyed their moment in the sun, but each were bounced two days later.
As we prepare for the second weekend of the 2012 NCAA Tournament, it is quite obvious that Cinderella was not invited to this ball. 14 of the remaining Sweet Sixteen teams are from power conferences, with the Xavier Musketeers and the Ohio Bobcats as the only remaining mid-majors. Xavier, a member of the Atlantic-10 Conference, has reached the Sweet Sixteen in four of the past five years, which partially revokes their “underdog” card. Sure, 11-seed North Carolina State has caught some eyes by upsetting San Diego State and Georgetown, but even they were one of the most popular lower seeds after an impressive performance in the national spotlight of the ACC Tournament.
It’s tough to tell whether the chalkiness of this year’s bracket is good or bad for college basketball. On one hand, the “big” schools tend to have more followers, so more people are still involved and watching all of the games. The Big Ten, for example, has four representatives remaining, and nearly had a fifth before Purdue choked away a late lead against Kansas.
But on the other hand, we as fans have been robbed of some of the excitement of a true Cinderella story. Last year, the highest ranked team to reach the Final Four was 3-seed UConn. That foursome included Butler from the Horizon League and VCU from the Colonial Athletic Association, two of the most improbable Final Four teams ever. VCU in 2011 and George Mason in 2006 electrified their respective Tournaments, as nearly every fan disregarded their personal brackets and supported the crazy streaks through the field.
The good news is that even without the underdog stories, the second weekend is shaping up for some excellent basketball. Storylines run wild, as “what-if” scenarios dominate the office water cooler talk this week.
What if Syracuse doesn’t need Fab Melo?
The Orange looked very shaky in their seven-point, referee-aided victory over UNC Asheville, then settled in and throttled Kansas State. After pundits and fans alike switched them out of the Final Four in the brackets due to Melo’s academic ineligibility, ‘Cuse now looks like a team that could pick up momentum and sneak out of the East regional.
What if the second of two wrist injuries derails the Midwest region quarterfinals favorite?
UNC was still one of the favorites without forward John Henson, but doom-and-gloom has begun to set in for the Tar Heels now that point guard Kendall Marshall has a broken wrist. Though Harrison Barnes and Tyler Zeller stole the national attention for most of the year, Marshall was the most important guy on that team. He played the role of facilitator, and he was second in the nation with 9.7 assists per game. Barring a miraculously fast healing process, UNC will have some big shoes to fill this weekend.
What if Indiana has Kentucky’s number this year?
The Kentucky Wildcats had one of the most impressive regular season runs in recent memory, dropping only one game all season long. They won each of their six games against ranked opponents, and big man Anthony Davis had a season worthy of the Naismith Award. So what’s the problem? The problem is that the one loss came in Bloomington, Indiana as the Hoosiers knocked off the top-ranked Wildcats on Christian Watford’s game-winning buzzer-beater. We’ll have to wait until Friday night to see if UK comes out for revenge or with their Wildcat tails between their legs. Either way, we’re in for a great game between two storied basketball programs.
What if Wisconsin and Ohio State meet up for a rubber match in the Elite Eight?
The paths for both teams have been made easier; first, Wisconsin’s toughest opponent in Syracuse lost its best big man. Then, 3-seed Florida State fell to Cincinnati, who OSU will play on Thursday. Of the two Big East rivals, the Badgers face a much tougher opponent, but they also have the perfect offense to win that game. Jim Boeheim has Syracuse playing a 2-3 zone, which has always been susceptible to the three-point shot (a Wisconsin specialty). The Badgers and Buckeyes split their two games earlier this year, and each time the road team won. If both teams can win one more game, then they will meet for a third game, this time at a neutral site with a trip to New Orleans and the Final Four on the line.