Rudy Giuliani took another important step toward securing the Republican Party’s presidential nomination when he addressed a crowd of more than 2,000 religious conservatives in Washington, D.C., Saturday. If he manages to court even a segment of the religious right, he’ll almost assuredly win the Republican presidential nomination. Despite his frontrunner status, I have to wonder: What do Republicans see in Mr. Giuliani?
As far as I can tell, Mr. Giuliani has gained support because of his record as mayor of New York City, as well as his performance on Sept. 11 and thereafter. I’m going to leave Sept. 11 and the terrorism issue aside for the moment, and take a closer look at Mr. Giuliani’s record as mayor. As we’ll see, his legacy isn’t nearly as rosy as many believe.
During his run, Mr. Giuliani has spent a significant amount of time both distancing himself from the city he calls home, and yet still taking credit for the revitalization of New York under his guidance.
Last week, The New York Times published an article in which it underlined the often-tortured relationship between Mr. Giuliani and New York City since he has left office. In it, Mr. Giuliani describes New York as a “devastated” and “depressed” city when he was elected. He argued that he was elected not because the people of New York agreed with him, but rather because they disagreed with his ideas.
Twisted logic aside, he’s right about New York’s renaissance during his mayoralty. Throughout the 90s, crime rates fell, and the economy of New York underwent a renewal. However, Mr. Giuliani isn’t nearly as responsible for the revival of New York City as he would have us believe.
Let’s take the issue of crime rate first. Mr. Giuliani is correct — the crime rate fell during his mayoral term. However, crime began falling in 1992, two years before he took office. Furthermore, it fell throughout the entire United States — not just in New York City. The majority of the reduction was due to a cause that two economists recognized in their now-famous 2001 study.
Stephen Levitt and John Donohue put forth a novel explanation for the drop in violent crime throughout the nation. They noticed that the crime rate began to fall in the United States (including New York) in the early 90s. Sociologists and criminologists (and mayors) attributed the drop to novel police tactics or the economic boom of the 90s, among other explanations. However, Messrs. Levitt and Donohue identified a completely different — not to mention, controversial — reason for the significant and ubiquitous drop in crime. Crime was falling because of the infamous 1973 Supreme Court decision Roe v. Wade.
Obviously, this isn’t what Mr. Giuliani would like you to believe. Frankly, I had a hard time acknowledging an apparently positive side effect from Roe v. Wade myself. It seems a bit perverse, but nevertheless, the evidence supporting the claim is convincing.
Similarly, the economic revival experienced in New York City was less a product of Mr. Giuliani’s policies than it was a result of a nationwide economic resurgence. As the capital of the American economy — and in many ways, capital of the global economy — New York City stood to benefit most from the incredible growth and prosperity experienced throughout the decade.
Mr. Giuliani’s tax cuts were undoubtedly helpful to economic growth, but the $4.8 billion deficit he left his successor does little to help his economic legacy. Giuliani supporters will argue that this deficit was the result of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the downturn in the economy in 2000. However, in his final budget, released in June 2001, he projected a deficit of $2.8 billion, a full $500 million larger than the deficit he inherited in 1994. The economy turned sour a year earlier, giving the mayor plenty of time to restructure his budget to maintain a projected surplus.
He failed to recognize the changing economic environment and incurred the large deficit. That doesn’t exactly leave the impression of a fiscal conservative, which is what Republicans should look for in 2008, seeing as they haven’t had one in the Oval Office for quite some time.
Rudy Giuliani points to his New York record as proof of his worthiness as a presidential candidate. Undoubtedly, Mr. Giuliani was an important player in New York’s revival, but he isn’t nearly as responsible for its resurgence as he claims to be. If he secures the Republican Party’s nomination, it will be in spite of, rather than because of, his record as mayor of New York City.
Corey Sheahan ([email protected]) is a senior majoring in history and economics.
