Five years have passed since President Bush identified the "axis of evil" — composed of Iraq, Iran and North Korea — as the greatest threat to the United States and world peace. Since that declaration, our military has invaded Iraq and overthrown Saddam Hussein and his oppressive government. Concurrently, we listen to and observe Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, violate any standard of human decency by declaring the Holocaust a myth and vowing to eliminate the state of Israel, all while vigorously pursuing a nuclear weapons' program. The third rogue state, North Korea, and its pesky dictator, Kim Jong Il, surprised us last year by testing a nuclear device. One can only conclude that President Bush was absolutely correct in his identification of these three rogue states as an axis of evil.
At first glance, it looks as though the members of the axis of evil have gotten individually and collectively more threatening since Bush's 2002 State of the Union Address. Just as it appears news cannot get worse, we had a moment of optimism this week when North Korea tentatively agreed to give up its nuclear ambitions. The agreement, negotiated through six-party talks including China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and the United States, establishes an exchange in which North Korea immediately shuts down its Yongbyon nuclear facility and allows inspectors back into the country in exchange for 50,000 tons of oil or equivalent financial aid. During phase two, North Korea would cooperate with an extended timeframe to completely shut down its facility and take inventory of its plutonium, in exchange for another 950,000 tons of oil or equivalent financial aid. Economically, the deal is worth approximately $300 million; politically, its value is priceless.
President Bush has received much criticism for his handling of North Korea, as critics disparaged the administration's unwillingness to enter bilateral negotiations with the North Koreans, insisting instead on multiparty talks. These same critics also blame President Bush for North Korea's successful nuclear bomb test in October 2006. Yet this new agreement, the first major breakthrough with North Korea since its announcement in 2002 that it was pursuing nuclear weapons, vindicates President Bush. Indeed, the Bush administration put pressure on China to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table, as China possesses unmatched financial and security leverage with the North. This strategy worked as Kim Jong Il understands that the Chinese will not react well to being double-crossed, and Kim could lose one of his last sources of revenue and protection.
The Bush administration's tactic to squeeze Kim Jong Il — known affectionately as Dear Leader by his few supporters — into cooperation worked only after years of diplomacy spent convincing China and Russia to support the United States at the United Nations Security Council, which resulted in an October 2006 resolution banning the sale of luxury goods to North Korea. This cut off Kim's perks of office and without luxury goods to shower on his inner-circle of supporters and government officials, he sensed his power waning and decided to engage the regional powers once again.
This agreement is not as comprehensive as many hoped because it does not yet address existing stockpiles of nuclear weapons, but it is the first step toward resolving peacefully the only nuclear member of the axis of evil. The international community has no choice but to recognize the success of President Bush's diplomatic steadfastness, commend China for cooperation and realism and seek another round of multi-party talks.
Tomorrow is Kim's 65th birthday and, as he grows old, we can hope that he goes out not with the nuclear bang, but with a whimper. For the first time in a long time, it seems possible, but only with continued multilateral pressure on Dear Leader.
Will Smith ([email protected]) is a freshman majoring in political science and religious studies.
