The most significant voting area in Wisconsin might not be Milwaukee or Madison this election season. According to some state leaders, the focus Nov. 7 will be on the results from the Chippewa Valley of northwestern Wisconsin.
Although Eau Claire County does not have the population density of the Madison and Milwaukee areas, the split-voting habits in the county signify a "swing" region, according to political analysts. In both the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, the region voted Democratic, yet has consistently voted Republican in state elections.
"Candidates look at that [discrepancy in voting] and try to motivate their voting core to balance the Madison and Milwaukee-area votes," said Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor. "Then candidates look at the rest of the state to tip the balance in their favor."
Franklin added that shifting the margins of votes in any region of the state, especially undecided swing regions, will help in a statewide election where votes are not restricted to districts.
And Eau Claire County is accustomed to getting recognition from candidates.
"President Bush was here in 2004 because he knew we were a Democratic region, and he was trying to soften that," said Sue Miller, chair of the Eau Claire County Democratic Party. "This year, [Democratic Gov. Jim] Doyle has been in the region, and [U.S. Rep. Mark Green, R-Wis.] has been up here hammering really heavily in this region in hopes of tightening the vote margin."
Miller added that following the Sept. 12 primary election, the Eau Claire region saw an "onslaught" of gubernatorial commercials for both candidates on local television stations.
Laurie Forcier, chair of the Eau Claire County Republican Party, agreed there has been an augmented presence of gubernatorial candidates in the area.
"Doyle is here all the time … and there is a permanent Democrat headquarters and a lot of liberals up here," she said. "But Republicans also have a good crowd here, and Mark is a graduate of UW-Eau Claire and is a superstar around here."
According to a recent poll of 800 likely Wisconsin voters done by Atlanta-based Strategic Vision, Doyle leads Green 46 percent to 42 percent. And the slim lead has prompted increased use of media by candidates.
Forcier said she believes much of the media attention is because the Eau Claire region is part of the second-largest media market in the state, covering the largest land area.
Yet Franklin doubted the effectiveness of media presence in a swing region, saying that increased ads don't directly affect voter turnout.
And Miller and Forcier agreed much attention is being brought to the November election on the local level, as well, including on university campuses.
"This year we will see a higher voter turnout because there is more attention locally," Miller said. "The Democratic Party here, after losing the national race in 2004, had enough and now is really getting energized and focused."
Forcier said Republicans are also fired up, adding she expects a high turnout of a "quiet sleeper group" that hasn't been polled in this election.
"But this year is anybody's guess," Forcier added. "It's always interesting in a non-presidential election year — especially after a passionate fight seen in this [gubernatorial] campaign — to see how the last weeks of campaign pan out."
