After avenging their two regular season losses to Purdue University in a gutsy overtime victory Saturday, the University of Wisconsin men’s basketball team’s revenge tour will be making its final stop Sunday against the Fighting Illini.
Illinois got the best of UW on their March 2 date — topping the Badgers 91–83 at the Kohl Center to become just the second team to put up 90 or more points against UW since March 6, 2016.
To say UW will have their work cut out for them defensively would be an understatement.
The Illini rank fourth in the country in offensive efficiency via Kenpom and are led by Terrance Shannon Jr., who currently scores the third-most points per game in the nation (22.6) and just hung 40 on Nebraska, and Marcus Domask (15.7 ppg), who put up 31 against the Badgers last time they played.
But Illinois’ defense is much less frightening. They have given up 80 or more points in nine of their last 15 games and are exploitable on the interior.
Last time they met, forward Tyler Wahl had a field day in the post, going 9-for-14 from the field for a team-high 20 points. Fellow teammate Steven Crowl was limited to 14 minutes due to foul trouble but went 2-for-3 on 2-pointers.
The Fighting Illini’s defensive weakness is largely due to the unique nature of their starting lineup, which occupies no player shorter than 6-foot-6 but doesn’t feature a traditional big or rim protector. Instead, they utilize Coleman Hawkins (37.6% 3Pt) and Quincy Guerrier (38.2% 3Pt) as stretch bigs, creating a five-out offense that allows for plenty of driving lanes for their athletic wings but struggles to defend back-to-basket players.
If there was one thing Illinois could choose to repeat from a defensive standpoint, it would likely be shutting down guard AJ Storr. Storr went 4-for-12 from the field with 13 points and struggled mightily with Shannon — who will likely draw the Storr matchup again Sunday — as his primary defender.
While the Badgers haven’t fundamentally changed much since they faced Illinois, they’re in much better form. UW has won four of their last five games heading into Sunday instead of losing six of their previous eight as they had before March 2.
But if UW wishes to turn their stretch of high-quality play into a Big Ten title, they’ll have to accomplish most, if not all, of the following keys to success.
1) Don’t get sped up
Once again, UW sits among the slowest teams in the country on Kenpom, and defensively thrives on forcing teams to play in the halfcourt. The Fighting Illini, on the other hand, are in the top sixth of the country in tempo via Kenpom and are always looking to push the ball upcourt in transition. With the Badgers on their fourth game in as many days, Illinois will likely try to capitalize on some tired legs, push the tempo and look to get UW out of rhythm.
2) Find the right matchup for Marcus Domask
With two traditional bigs and an undersized backcourt in comparison to Illinois, the Badgers are put in a difficult spot when picking out defensive assignments. Two weeks ago, Wisconsin deployed Wahl on Domask with the hopes of Wahl’s larger frame neutralizing Domask’s back-to-the-basket — or booty ball, as some like to call it — play style. Though Domask hit plenty of difficult shots over Wahl, the Badgers will need to do a better job defending the Southern Illinois transfer. Whether that comes from Wahl, guard Max Klesmit, who’s defended larger players like Donta Scott of Maryland this season, or AJ Storr, who’s been significantly better on defense lately, UW has to offer more resistance.
3) Keep Terrance Shannon Jr. in check
This one may seem obvious, but guys who are as talented as Shannon can single-handedly win games. Whether it’s by exploding for a Big Ten Tournament record 40 points or merely catching fire down the stretch, Shannon has shown the ability to take over. Though he’ll likely get his during Sunday’s matchup, keeping him out of the scoring column in critical moments and not allowing him to be comfortable will be big for the Badgers title hopes. It’s also worth noting that guard Chucky Hepburn drew the Shannon assignment the first time around.
Though the Badgers will enter Sunday’s championship game as underdogs, on their fourth consecutive gameday and with multiple players banged up, UW has made it clear that this team has no quit. And besides, there’s no telling what will happen once the ball is tipped at 2:30 p.m. on CBS.
