This is how September is supposed to be…

Distracted undergrads dozing off in dirty Van Vleckian dungeons, employing their newly-learned knowledge of algebra to calculate the chances that — once ScottPod gets off his ass — their beloved Brewers can overcome the hefty 15 games and eight teams that lie between them and the wild card playoff-entrance loophole…

Blatherskites in blue, bumming around on the side of the street, talking way too loudly as they try to convince their girlfriends (who really, really don’t care and are really, really close to breaking it off) that if Sammy Sosa can just, y’know, make it back into the starting lineup, the Cubs will start winning again…

Well, just to be helpful, I’m going to give both groups of you a ‘lil hint: ScottPod and Corky McRoidsAlot aren’t going to sway anything this year. And if you’re hoping that a player like that, or like Kenny Rogers, or like David Bell, or like Crazy Carl Everett (who I’m pretty sure is my TA for the Age of Dinosaurs this semester) is going to rescue your team from that quickly appearing abyss — you’re setting yourself up for a knock down.

Here are ten players who actually can make a difference in this year’s playoff race:

10) Barry Zito, Oakland: In his first three full major league seasons, Zito compiled an amazing 54 wins; he allowed less than 3.2 earned runs per game; and — perhaps most impressively — he never gave up more than 190 hits in a season (even though he pitched upwards of 212 innings in each campaign). This season Zito already has hit the 190 mark; his ERA is over 4.50; and he has limped his way to just 10 victories. The A’s have kept rolling despite the struggles of their ace (well, one of their aces). But the Angels have a better team than the A’s now that they’re healthy; and a one and a half game lead in the AL West just isn’t going to be enough breathing room. Zito hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs since July 26th, which (oddly enough) is progress for him this season. The Angels and A’s play each other in six out of the last ten games this season; if the A’s want to make it to the playoffs again in ’04, they’re going to need all four of their aces ready for those games.

9) Orlando Hernandez, New York Yankees: Gone are Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and David Wells — in other words, gone are the stoppers. That makes 54-year old El Douche Bag the most important player in the Bronx this September. If the Yankees’ bleeding continues, there is a chance (whoda thunk it?) that the 200-million dollar team will actually not make the playoffs (…Read that again). Kevin Brown is hurt (for the first time in his career, I think…), Javier Vazquez actually has less than no playoff experience (playing in Montreal counts negatively on that chart), Mussina is erratic to say the least and Esteban Loiaza apparently is even worse than Jose Contreras was. Hernandez needs to keep pitching at a high level (7-0, 2.62 ERA this year) if the Yankees are going to hold off the streaking BoSox.

8) Dustin Hermanson, San Fransisco: Hermanson is a clown. He’s been a clown his entire career. He was a clown as a starter. He’s a clown as a closer. The idea that there is a potential playoff team out there that is relying on a guy who spends six hours every day grooming his stupid little ‘stache (or whatever it is — I just conducted a makeshift poll and no one really knows what to call that thing) to close games is simply ridiculous. BUT, if the Giants are going to go anywhere, Hermanson has to be a rock at closer — because with two good players on Felipe Alou’s entire roster (granted, those two are the best starting pitcher and the best hitter in the NL), San Francisco can’t afford to be blowing any leads.

7) AJ Burnett, Florida: I’ve heard different stories — some of which say Burnett’s fastball tops out at 98 mph and some of which say it occasionally hits 102 — but one thing’s for damn sure: AJ Burnett can bring the heat. He can’t always control it (11 walks in his past three starts), but he can bring it. With a knuckle curve that is getting back to being as dangerous as it was before arm surgery stole a year from him and a developing changeup, it’s no wonder that every once in a while Burnett strikes out 14 guys. The Marlins are behind three teams right now in the wild card race, giving them very little room for error. Someone in the rotation has to step up and give Florida a second ace (Carl Pavano — likely the NL’s Cy Young winner — being the first); the choices are Burnett, Josh Beckett and Dontrelle Willis. I’m betting it’s going to be Burnett.

6) Jake Peavy, San Diego: On Tuesday night, 23-year old Peavy faced the best lineup in recent baseball history (Womack, Walker, Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Renteria, Sanders — find me a better one) and racked up eight strikeouts in just over five innings. He has a 2.33 ERA (thanks to allowing two earned runs or less in 18 of his 21 starts) and nearly a strikeout per inning in 2004 and would be a shoe-in for the NL Cy Young Award if he hadn’t lost a month to a nagging forearm injury. Peavy was named the NL pitcher of the month in August after going 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA in five starts. On a Padres squad that needs to pitch perfectly to find its way into the postseason, Peavy is the stopper. Where his health goes in the next month, so goes San Diego.

5) Bartolo Colon, Anaheim: I remember a funny story about Barty from his days in Cleveland. It was in the midst of one of the (many) seasons in which he compiled an ERA around 4.00 to disappoint all the writers that predicted he’d challenge for a Cy Young Award. Someone from a Cleveland newspaper interviewed the Tribe’s pitching coach at the time and asked him why Colon just wasn’t taking the next step; the response was priceless. The coach said that after every pitch, Colon looks up at the scoreboard to see if he hit 100 mph. His ERA is still horrendous this year, but Bartolo has pitched well of late. He needs to keep averting his eyes from the scoreboard if the Angels want to overtake the A’s.

4) Carlos Beltran, Houston: I was jobbed on my prediction that the Bel-Train would win the American League MVP this season; he may well have done just that if he was still with the Royals. Betran has a .376 on-base percentage, 38 dongs, 36 stolen bases (looking like a pretty good bet to become baseball’s first 40-40 man since Alex Rodriguez in 1998 and not a bad bet to become its first-ever 50-50 man), over 100 RBIs and over 100 runs. When he arrived in Houston, the ‘Stros were a disaster; they’re now winning every game and are — after some guy named Scott Downs shut down the Cubs Wednesday night — in the lead for the NL wild card.

3) Pedro Martinez, Red Sox: After walking through the first half of the season, Pedro began running after the break. He now looks like he’s breaking into a sprint (a 1.94 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 4-1 record since August 1st). If he keeps it up, the Yankees had better watch themselves. Because when he’s good, he’s not just good; he’s the best player in baseball.

2) Jose Lima, Los Angeles: I can’t believe Jose Lima is even in the major leagues — much less is pitching well — much, much less leading Los Angeles to the playoffs. But he is; and to fans of the Dodgers, his continued success is crucial. With Paul LoDuca in Florida, Lima is the defacto leader for LA in the clubhouse. He’s never lacked energy and he better not lack it down the stretch this season, because for a team that is known for its lack of enthusiasm, he’s the one fireball. The Dodger pitching staff isn’t anything to brag about (remember: almost everyone pitches to a sub 4.50 ERA in Dodger Stadium) and their offense is overachieving. “Lima Time” needs to last out the season, because right now the Dodgers are living on borrowed time.

1) Mark Prior, Chicago: Prior is the single most important person to his team in all of baseball right now. With the ceiling (not to mention the decrepit stadium) about to crumble down on Chi-town under the combined weight of the ‘Stros, Giants, Marlins and Padres, the cursed and critically overhyped Cubbies will take saving from anywhere they can get it. Unfortunately, Sammy Sosa proved long ago that his guilty conscience will forever keep him from being a winner, Moises Alou is too busy pissing on his hands to care about the standings and Aramis Ramirez has been spotted sneaking tokes in between innings. Prior may be the only player in baseball capable of righting a ship this wrong.

And, just cuz I really like this time of year, here’s an extra one for the books:

0) Rick Ankiel, St Louis: I had a conversation with a friend of mine right after the Cards traded for Larry Walker and I remember saying the words: “The Cardinals are unbeatable in the National League unless they do something crazy like give the ball to Ricky Moon Unit.” Mark my words: if he pitches more than 15 innings this season (and certainly if any of them come in the playoffs), the Cards are in serious trouble.