With the 2012 Iowa caucuses scheduled for Jan. 3, 2012, the Republican Party presidential primary race should begin to take form soon. With the recent suspension of Herman Cain’s campaign, eight candidates remain. However, that number is sure to dwindle shortly after the Iowa caucuses because there are basically three groups of candidates right now: the frontrunners, the walking dead and the reasonable candidates that have no chance.
Thus far, the race has seen its fair share of ups and downs in the polls. Various candidates have surged and then lost support quickly. Mitt Romney has been the frontrunner for the nomination since he lost to McCain in the 2008 primaries. He’s an experienced politician, but there are several things holding him back. Romney is not a social conservative, and the way in which he has changed his positions over the years on the most controversial social issues disturbs many conservatives. Furthermore, the health care program he enacted while governor of Massachusetts is strikingly similar to the plan enacted by President Barack Obama, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, unless you’re a Republican.
The newest challenger to Mitt Romney’s position as head honcho is Newt Gingrich. There can be no doubt in the minds of Republicans about his conservative credentials, although there are concerns regarding his personal ethics. It’s more than a little bit ironic that Herman Cain’s withdrawal from the race due to an alleged sexual affair is expected to help Newt Gingrich. Gingrich, who served as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives from 1995 to 1999, had a very public affair of his own while spearheading the campaign to impeach President Bill Clinton for sexual misconduct.
Rick Perry is the third frontrunner, although he is one of the candidates who peaked early and may now fade into oblivion. He’s a legitimate conservative, and Texas saw more job growth during his tenure as governor than any other state in the nation. However, he is a horrendous debater, and most Republicans seem to recognize that no matter how much they like him, he would be shredded in debates with an outstanding orator like Obama.
The candidates in no-man’s-land are US Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-MN, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum. Both are hardcore social conservatives; Bachmann experienced an early swell with support from the Tea Party, but has since fizzled out, while Santorum has consistently polled very low. Neither candidate really has any chance of winning the Republican nomination in 2012.
One candidate who has put forth serious policy proposals throughout his campaign is Jon Huntsman, former governor of Utah. Huntsman is socially conservative, but he’s not afraid to admit that he believes in things like global warming and evolution, which are subjects that are usually taboo for Republicans. Fiscally, Huntsman is also conservative, but he takes a more moderate approach than most of his competitors. Huntsman supported raising the debt ceiling, wants to reform the tax code and wants to limit the size of a handful of major banks in the United States so that they cannot be “too big to fail.”
Another intriguing candidate who has not received much attention thus far in the race is former governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson. He is a libertarian to his core, and many of his positions are similar to those advanced by Ron Paul. However, Johnson has actual executive experience. One serious criticism of Paul is that no one knows if he would actually reduce the size of the federal government to the extent he claims he would, and no one knows exactly what the effects would be. However, while governor, Johnson vetoed more bills than every other governor combined, and the sky didn’t fall on the Land of Enchantment
Of course, the only remaining candidate is Ron Paul. Ever-present, always consistent, Paul is the face of modern libertarianism, but he has no real chance to win the nomination, and sadly, is such a black sheep within the Republican Party that the chance of him being appointed to a position in any potential Republican president’s cabinet is probably null.
The Republican primaries are just beginning, but shortly after the Iowa caucuses in early January, there will probably only be a few candidates left standing. It is anyone’s guess who they’ll be. Of course, the three frontrunners all have a great chance of doing well in Iowa, but Huntsman or Johnson may be able to make a run in the near future.
Ryan Plesh ([email protected]) is a senior majoring in philosophy and physics.
