If you ask one thing of the opinion section this year, I hope and pray you would ask it to connect the dots — to bridge the gaps between the fantasy world of moral conviction and the unrelenting implacability of numerical fact.

Numbers can be unfortunate for the ill-advised. Napoleon’s grand dreams of empire were annihilated by a simple matter of temperature and distance. The current military adventure in Iraq hangs by the simple question of whether the number of casualties sustained will be greater than the public’s ability to tolerate them.

On a more humble level, the city of Madison also finds itself in an unenviable trap of numbers, exacerbated daily by its own inability to see reason. The elected officials of the city, riding on a high tide of public fury generated by the recent murder of a University of Wisconsin student and a number of petty crimes, have decided to hire 30 new police officers with funds from this year’s budget. The increase — the largest in over 20 years — was made as a gamble on the premise that the city would gain as much revenue as analysts predicted.

The road to hell may be paved with good intentions, but predictions often provide a decent road map.

Instead of passing a budget that would stand as a model of fiscal responsibility, the city has now found itself $24 million short of the amount necessary to continue current operations. And even though an increase of 30 new police officers added an extra $1.5 million to the budget — the largest spending increase — Mayor Dave Cieslewicz refuses to consider cutting back on this part of the budget, leaving social services in the fiscal crosshairs.

This did not have to be the case. Alds. Julia Kerr, Brian Solomon, Eli Judge, Marsha Rummel, Brenda Konkel, Satya Rhodes-Conway and Robbie Webber supported an amendment that would have added 18 police officers this year, with the rest of the money going towards social services. The other 12 officers would have been added or withheld based on the findings in a police staffing study and a budget analysis demonstrating whether the city could actually afford the new employees. The amendment crashed.

Perhaps the most agonizing aspect of increasing the police force by 30 officers is the fact that, when the statistics are in, the spending rampage will be painted as a success. Arrests of drunken but otherwise harmless students will be up. The University of Wisconsin will be a well-regulated precursor to a retirement home. To some extent, petty crime in Madison will decrease. Yet the especially heinous crimes — murder, rape, and robbery — will continue ad infinitum.

Traditionally, one of the few imperfect checks on the more fantastic absurdities of local government has been through student representation. Whether through the anticipated radical progressivism of your new district supervisor, Wyndham Manning, or through the more centrist approach of Eli Judge, the student alderman on Madison’s city council, students can count on having voices to defend them. Using these channels, or perhaps becoming one of them, is one of the greatest avenues open to new students keen on protecting an ever-shrinking number of privileges.

Irrespective of the myriad choices you make, I encourage you to always look at the numbers. If you do this, whatever predicaments you find yourself in, you will at least be secure in the knowledge that you will never be in a position as comparatively absurd as that of the city of Madison — writing a bogus check for too many police officers with money it does not have.

Sam Clegg ([email protected]) is a sophomore majoring in economics and French.