More than 13 years after U.S. intervention in Somalia ended, events in the region are once again focusing attention on the African nation. Roughly six months ago, an Islamic movement called the “Council of Islamic Courts” began to establish authority over the capital city of Mogadishu and the surrounding countryside. Although the courts brought a measure of stability to the area under Islamic control, the imposition of harsh Islamic law raised concerns among many Somali citizens. Of greater importance to the United States, several of the leaders of the Council of Islamic Courts were suspected to have plotted and carried out the embassy bombings of 1998 in Kenya and Tanzania. This raised the disturbing possibility of a new state lead by terrorists. Before I discuss U.S. policy in the region, let me first give a brief rundown of how the current situation in Somalia came to be.
As the Council of Islamic Courts grew in power throughout the last half of 2006, the most powerful country in the region, Ethiopia, indicated that it supported the internationally recognized transitional government located in the city of Baidoa. This government did not have much influence over the rest of the country and faced intense pressure from the Council of Islamic Courts. The government relied on Ethiopian support to survive. In early December, the Islamic courts declared a holy war against Ethiopia for their support of the transitional government. Following this announcement, the Ethiopian military formally invaded Somalia Dec. 24, and in the following days routed the Islamic forces.
Following the flight of the Islamic forces, the United States carried out an air strike on a village where one of the men behind the embassy bombings took shelter. This week, the aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower was ordered to sail within striking distance of Somalia, seemingly an indicator of further air strikes. The situation today has the transitional government’s forces attempting to restore order backed up by Ethiopian troops, but they face tough challenges to their goal of imposing some type of organization to the country. Unfortunately, direct American intervention in the region will greatly decrease the chance of a successful outcome in Somalia. Although the goal of pursuing terrorists is noble and just, there are a number of reasons why U.S. policy in the region should focus on a “hands-off” approach to minimize direct use of American forces.
First of all, the history of the United States and Somalia makes any attempt to put American forces in Somalia look like a repeat of the past. The unsuccessful U.S. intervention in 1992-93 as part of a United Nations force certainly did not encourage Somalis to put their faith in America. If U.S. air strikes begin to kill Somalis, it would likely pull the Somali citizenry together and focus their anger against the Ethiopian and transitional government forces that the United States backs. This would undermine their efforts and possibly cause their failure.
Second of all, the United States has faced an international outcry over the air strike and further military action will only strengthen this negative reaction. Also, with the majority of our military stuck in Iraq or recovering from it, even another small theater of combat would put new stress on operations there. In fact, the aircraft carrier now covering Somalia was previously stationed in the Persian Gulf. It can no longer be used in Iraq or as a deterrent against Iran. To avoid these problems, America should opt for a more indirect approach for securing Somalia.
The approach that I feel would be most effective right now is to focus on funding and supplying the Somali transitional government and Ethiopian troops that are on the ground trying to restore peace and stability. USA Today reported Jan. 7 that the United States has given Ethiopia $20 million in military aid since 2002. While this may seem significant, it is less than the cost of a single F-15 fighter plane. With no troops to spare elsewhere, the United States may wish to upgrade Ethiopian forces to keep the peace in the region. Even more important is ensuring that the transitional government in Somalia has the resources it needs to begin rebuilding Somali society. Whether through small teams of low profile military advisors, development funds or supplies, the best way to ensure a successful transition in Somalia will be for America to step back and quietly help regional forces such as Ethiopia or the African Union stabilize the region.
Waving a stick at Somalia with an aircraft carrier battle group is not likely to be effective in a failed state that is so poor that the people have nothing to lose. Instead, support for the forces that are already on the ground might actually make a difference. Fixing Somalia is not going to be accomplished through an air strike here or there. Instead, the United States should work with Ethiopian and Somali authorities to provide aid and focus on making their mission a success.
Andrew Wagner ([email protected]) is a sophomore majoring in computer science and political science.
