This past weekend, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean traveled
to Milwaukee attempting to garner votes for the upcoming Wisconsin
primary. Although no longer the front-runner for the nomination,
his strategy in Wisconsin follows standard Democratic campaign
procedure.
Dean and other Democrats have worked tirelessly to spin good
economic news and convince middle-class Americans, especially
minorities, that President George W. Bush has ruined all chances
for success. While meeting with several local African American
leaders and attending church services, Dean emphasized the high
unemployment rates among the African American population and other
minorities in the state. As an alternative, Dean and Democratic
front-runner Senator John Kerry promise to repeal the Bush tax cuts
and increase spending on social programs.
In order to understand the current economic condition, one must
look at recent economic history. The 2003 third-quarter gross
domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 8.2 percent occurred two
years after President Bush’s tax cuts and was the largest GDP
growth rate since the first quarter of 1984 — approximately two
years after President Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts. Amid this great
economic news, Democrats have found one last piece of bad news to
run with: unemployment rates. In particular, Democrats target
cities with manufacturing economies and high minority jobless
rates.
If history repeats itself, Democrats may soon experience a rude
awakening. As GDP growth generally lags tax cuts, job growth
usually lags GDP growth. Bruce Bartlett, a senior fellow with the
National Center for Policy Analysis, provides excellent analysis on
this. Writing in the Washington Times Aug. 11, 2003, he notes that
after the early 1990s recession, job growth did not occur until
1994, a full three years after the recession ended. A similar trend
transpired in the 1980s.
Bartlett also notes that productivity is an extremely important
statistic. Productivity has increased by 6.5 percent since the end
of the 2001 recession, and Bartlett cites two studies from the
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco that prove higher productivity increases employment
in the long run. It only makes sense. Eventually, at some point,
associates at a company begin falling behind with demand,
necessitating hiring. In fact, recent data showing consistent
declines in new unemployment claims would suggest that this trend
has already restarted.
Democrats have criticized President Bush’s tax cuts for
benefiting the wealthy few, but they fail to understand that those
individuals create the jobs in this country, something these
individuals cannot do under confiscatory tax and redistribution
policies. Furthermore, historical trends indicate that as the
economic recovery comes to full fruition, all Americans, regardless
of race or status, will benefit from a stronger job market.
Unlike most Democrats, President Bush understands that jobs are
best created not through affirmative action or social programs, but
rather by encouraging economic growth that forces businesses to
hire truly qualified associates in order to remain competitive.
Finally, besides the tax cut, one other important factor has
kept the economy growing, namely, strong national security. In a
recent CBS/ New York Times poll, 68 percent of Americans give
President Bush high marks in his campaign against terrorism, as
they should. In addition to ridding the world of several dangerous
terrorists and dictators, this administration has prevented any
major terrorist attack from occurring on United States soil since
Sept. 11, 2001, undoubtedly boosting business and consumer
confidence.
In this coming election, instead of simply voting for the
candidate endorsed by their organization or union, Americans,
regardless of race, should make a careful decision and start by
asking these three questions: Who do we trust to keep us safe from
terrorism? Who will allow us to keep more of our own earnings? Who
will ensure that economic growth continues? After careful
consideration of one, two, or all three of these questions, the
contrast between President Bush and the front-running Democratic
candidates becomes clear.
Mark Baumgardner ([email protected]) is a senior
majoring in electrical engineering.
