Green Party 2024 presidential candidate Jill Stein is a concern to both Republicans and Democrats across Wisconsin in the upcoming election, according to Politico. In 2016, Donald Trump won against Hillary Clinton by less than 23,000 votes in Wisconsin. Many Democrats blame this loss on Stein’s nearly 31,000 votes in the state, according to Politico.
Wisconsin has been declared one of the top seven “toss-up” states in the 2024 Presidential Election by U.S. News. Wisconsin is also a critical component in the “Blue Wall,” a phrase used to describe states that are vital to Kamala Harris’ chance of winning the presidency, according to Politico.
Though Stein did get more votes than the margin between Clinton and Trump, it is unlikely her candidacy prevented voters from selecting either of the major party candidates, Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin said.
“Voters are voting for a third party precisely because they don’t like the two major parties,” Franklin said. “And therefore if they didn’t have that third party option, it’s actually likely that quite a few would skip the presidential race.”
Franklin said these voters may also find a different minor candidate to vote for.
University of Wisconsin professor of political science Alexander Tahk agreed with Franklin and said not all Green Party voters would have otherwise opted for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate.
“People sometimes imagine that if, say, the Green Party gets 1% of the vote, that’s 1% that it costs the Democratic candidate,” Tahk said. “I think that significantly overestimates how much of that vote would have gone to the Democratic candidate, both because some of those voters wouldn’t have turned out to vote at all, and because some of them actually would have voted for the Republican candidate.”
The number one reason people vote third-party is because they are unhappy with both major party candidates, Franklin said. Such was the case when Joe Biden was the 2024 Democratic candidate, Franklin said. The percentage of double haters — voters who dislike both major parties — nationwide was 25%, according to the Pew Research Center. But, with Harris taking over, the percentage of voters who dislike both candidates has dropped to around 6%, according to Franklin.
Tahk said individuals may vote for a third-party candidate not in hopes the candidate will win, but to protest their dissatisfaction with the two major parties.
“Casting a protest vote is a very common reason people vote for a third party,” Tahk said. “They know that their candidate isn’t going to win, but they’re sufficiently unhappy with the choices that they would rather their vote be recorded as not liking either of the choices, even if they don’t fully agree with the third party candidate that they are voting for.”
Independent voters tend to vote for third-party candidates, Franklin said. Additionally, a Marquette Law School poll found that around 13% of all voters under 30 tend to vote for third-party candidates — compared to 6% of voters of all ages, Franklin said.
In an email, Jill Stein co-press director Sam Pfeifle said their campaign attracts voters who are looking for an alternative to the major party candidates.
“Rather than serve the corporate donors that control the Democratic and Republican parties, we aim to serve the people of the United States, first and foremost, with policies that prioritize the people, planet and peace,” Pfeifle said in the email.
Stein holds different policy positions than other candidates — including her support for Palestine, raising the minimum wage to $25/hr, ending student debt, addressing the climate crisis and ending police brutality, according to Pfeifle.
Stein’s campaign focuses on the next generation who is especially energized by her support for Palestine and Gaza, global connectivity and her financial policies, according to Pfeifle.
“Young people are excited by our proposals to make free public education extend through the university level and … to create public housing that allows them to have an affordable place to sleep at night,” Pfeifle said in the email.
Tahk said the Green Party’s support has declined in recent years. Stein does not seem to attract the same attention as previous Green Party candidates have in the past — for example, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader received three million votes in 2000, according to Tahk.
But, there is still the possibility of third parties affecting election outcomes, Tahk said.
“That said, this [2024] election seems to be pretty close,” Tahk said. “The election in Wisconsin in particular seems to be pretty close. So even if it’s a tiny fraction of the vote, that could still very easily swing the outcome.”
There have been significant third-party elements present in a multitude of past US Presidential Elections, Tahk said. Most notoriously are Reform Party candidate Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996, and independent candidates John B. Anderson in 1980 and George Wallace in 1968, according to Tahk.
George Wallace won 13.5% of the popular vote in 1968, Anderson got 8.8% in 1980 and Ross Perot got 18.9% in 1992 followed by 8.4% in 1996, according to the American Presidency Project.
There have been only two election years — 2008 and 2012 — in the past century where the margin of votes between two major party candidates was large enough for the third party to have no effect, according to Franklin.
Franklin said the Libertarian Party is the third party with the most active support, yet none of its candidates have ever won the presidency. In 2016, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson received around 70,000 more votes than Stein in Wisconsin, according to the Wall Street Journal.
According to an Oct. 9 Quinnipiac University Poll, 48% of Wisconsin voters support Trump, 46% support Harris and 1% support Stein.
“Even when third parties can exist and sustain themselves over time — like the libertarians have — they still fall well short of winning elections and thus offices,” Franklin said.
