Newly released polls show Republican incumbents leading their Democratic challengers in the recall elections, races which could determine which party will hold a majority in the state Senate.
In a poll conducted by the polling group Public Policy Polling for the liberal blog Daily Kos released Tuesday, Senate Republican Leader Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau, leads Democratic challenger Lori Compas 54 to 40 percent.
However, Compas said in a statement while Fitzgerald easily won his re-election, the “divisive policies he championed” over the year have lowered his popularity.
“I’m really encouraged by the gains I’ve made in the polls, especially considering that I started as an unknown and we haven’t started our mail or radio programs yet,” Compas said. “Clearly the tide has turned and my message of open, honest government is resonating with voters.”
The poll also showed Sen. Terry Moulton, R-Chippewa Falls, leading challenger Kristen Dexter 51 to 41 percent. In the race to replace former Sen. Pam Galloway, R-Wausau, who resigned in March, Rep. Jerry Petrowski, R-Marathon, leads Rep. Donna Seidel, D-Wausau, 51 to 37 percent in the polls.
The closest race is between Sen. Van Wanggaard, R-Racine, and John Lehman, a Democrat. Wanggaard leads Lehman 48 to 46 percent, which is within the margin of error for the poll.
Lehman said he did not find the numbers surprising because Racine tends to be a competitive district and has gone back and forth between Republicans and Democrats for years. He also said his campaign has not yet begun using paid advertising.
He added Racine had the most signatures collected in the recall elections with more than 900 petition circulators.
“We’ve got a little army at the beginning, Mr. Wanggaard doesn’t,” Lehman said. “We’re going to put our enthusiastic supporters to work in addition to paid advertising for the election.”
PPP said about 10 percent of respondents in an earlier poll who disapproved of Gov. Scott Walker’s job performance also disapproved of the recalls, which could mean Walker and the state senators would need to widen the gap in their disapproval ratings in order for their likelihood of losing in the recall to increase.
However, University of Wisconsin political science professor John Coleman said in an email to The Badger Herald neither the previous poll nor the recent one gives any leverage to understand what voters will do on Election Day.
“Vote for Walker? Vote for his opponent, despite not liking recalls? Not vote at all? The likely answer, of course, is that all of these things will happen, but we have no idea in what proportions,” Coleman said.
Dietram Scheufele, a UW life sciences communication professor and an expert in political polling, said in an email to The Badger Herald the Democrats may be running a greater risk of creating a “sense of fatigue” by infighting over public sector union issues.
He added the senatorial recall efforts differ from the governor’s race, and some focus much more on personalities and specific districts rather than on the direction the state is heading in the broader sense.
Coleman also said polls often use a variety of filters for likely voters and different methods, which may cause variations in poll results.
“Whether you are a supporter of the governor and the four Senate Republicans or are a supporter of their opponents, you should avoid getting overly hung up on the results of any one poll,” Coleman said. “The best strategy is to look across polls for general tendencies and trends.”
